The U.S. child nutrition program, due for renewal this year by Congress, will rise in cost by 4 percent annually for the coming decade from the current $21 billion, says CBO. In its annual economic baseline report, CBO says “growth in the number of meals provided and in reimbursement rates will lead to spending increases” for a total cost of $32 billion in 2025. Food prices are projected to rise by 2.7 percent annually in the coming years, a fairly normal rate of food inflation. School lunch accounts for slightly more than half of child nutrition costs.
A potential issue for Congress this year is opposition by some school districts to requirements to offer more fruit, vegetables and whole grains in their meals on grounds they cost too much and are not popular with students. Besides school lunch, child nutrition programs include school breakfast and food programs for child and adult day care.
Food stamp enrollment is dropping for the second year in a row after peaking at a record 47.6 million people in fiscal 2013, says CBO. It estimates a 4 percent drop, to 44.3 million recipients, in the current year. Participation in the program climbed relentlessly after the economic recession began in 2008. Food stamp enrollment and costs are highest during periods of economic distress.
CBO said it “expects the number of people collecting SNAP benefits…will gradually decline over the coming years” and drop below 40 million people in fiscal 2019. It expects an unemployment rate of 5.4 or 5.5 percent in most years. The jobless rate was 5.6 percent in December, the lowest since June 2008. While food stamp enrollment would fall, CBO forecasts a 2 percent per year rise in the cost of the Thrifty Food Plan used to calculate benefits. Food stamps are estimated to cost $78 billion this year, falling to $75 billion in fiscal 2019.
CBO’s baseline for child nutrition programs is available here. Its baseline for food stamps is available here.