A second wave of the devastating avian influenza could appear this fall or next spring, the chief USDA veterinarian told senators, adding, “We will be ready for that challenge.” Some 49.5 million fowl, almost all of them turkeys and chickens, were lost in a six-month epidemic that ended with the arrival of warm weather in the Midwest in June. The worst-ever outbreak of avian influenza wiped out 3 percent of U.S. turkey production for this year and 10 percent of the hens that lay eggs for human consumption. Egg production is forecast to drop by 5 percent for the year.
“The risk of the disease re-emerging in the fall or spring is significant,” said chief veterinarian John Clifford. During a Senate Agriculture Committee hearing, Clifford said the USDA would meet state veterinarians and poultry industry officials on July 28 and 29 “to ensure that our collective biosecurity is more stringent and that we are prepared for any future outbreaks.” Initial work by the USDA suggests environmental factors such as strong winds and biosecurity lapses were factors in spreading the virus last winter and spring.
Clifford said the department will work on a potential bird flu vaccine for the fall – “I want that tool in the toolbox in case we need it” – but it might not be employed. He warned that $3 billion in export markets for poultry products may be lost if a vaccine is used. Some importing nations would cut off purchases while evaluating the effectiveness of the vaccine, he said.
To date, the economy-wide impact of the epidemic is $3.3 billion, said Tom Elam, president of the consulting company FarmEcon. Consumers have absorbed half of it in higher prices for eggs and turkey, he said. Direct losses to producers are slightly more than $1 billion for egg farmers and $530 million for turkey producers, Elam said. A relatively small number of commercial farms, 223, were hit by the disease, so those operations suffered “catastrophic losses,” said Elam. Some farms lost more than 1 million birds. The worst case in Iowa was 5.7 million laying hens.
So far, poultry producers have received $190 million from the USDA as indemnities for lost flocks. During the hearing, producers asked for a more generous compensation formula that takes into account lost production while barns are disinfected and flocks re-built, a process that takes months. They also complained that USDA was too slow in responding to outbreaks, so the virus had time to multiply while destroying their flocks.
“It could take up to two years to re-populate the farms,” said James Dean, chairman of United Egg Producers, a group representing almost all egg farmers.
Newly hatched chicks must be fed for 20 weeks to grow into pullets that are ready to lay eggs. Farmers use flocks with birds of varying ages to ensure steady production of eggs. Young hens lay nearly one egg a day; older hens lay an egg every couple of days. Hens are culled before they are two years of age. Dean said most farms would have one barn of pullets for every four barns of laying hens as part of staggering the laying population.
“Although we hope that we will not have additional or more widespread outbreaks, it’s very likely that wild birds will carry the virus with them when they begin migrating south in the fall,” said Clifford. The bird-flu epidemic this spring did not touch flocks in the Southeast, the heart of U.S. broiler chicken production. Clifford said “it’s important that our state and industry partners begin preparations should the disease occur there.”
In planning for the fall, the USDA’s worst-case scenario is an epidemic in all 22 states that are major poultry producers with 500 farms hit. “I don’t believe it will [occur],” said Clifford, but prudence demanded consideration of the possibility. By comparison, this year’s epidemic struck 223 commercial-size flocks in nine major poultry states. Two-thirds of the losses were in Iowa, the No. 1 egg state. Minnesota, the top turkey producer, also was hit hard.
David Swayne, director of the USDA’s Southeast Poultry Research Laboratory, said, “That’s the question we have to face” – the next wave of bird flu, if it comes. The fall migration would reach Minnesota in late August and the southern half of the nation in September.
The USDA has updated surveillance systems that monitor wild birds and migratory waterfowl for avian influenza. Federal, state, university and private-sector groups will step up surveillance and sampling of birds for the disease through next spring. Experts say the epidemic, which first appeared in the Pacific Northwest, was spread by droppings from migratory waterfowl. Biosecurity lapses, such as sharing equipment between farms or failing to disinfect shoes before entering a poultry barn, also were factors.
To read testimony from the hearing or to watch a video of it, click here.