California’s farmers will have less irrigation water and will idle more cropland this year than they did last year, says a study by UC-Davis. It estimates direct agricultural losses of $1.8 billion, comprised of $1.2 billion in lower crop, livestock and dairy revenue and $600 million in higher costs to pump water from wells. “When we account for the spillover effect of agriculture on the state’s other economic sectors, the total cost of this year’s drought on California’s economy is $2.7 billion and the loss of about 18,600 full- and part-time jobs,” say the authors.
UC-Davis estimates that roughly 560,000 acres will be fallowed, equal to 6 or 7 percent of irrigated cropland. Last year, about 4 percent of irrigated cropland was idled.
“The impacts are concentrated mostly in the San Joaquin Valley and are not evenly distributed; individual farmers will face losses of zero to 100 percent,” said the UC-Davis team, referring to the impact of a reduction of 9-10 percent in use of irrigation water this year compared to a normal year.
“As with last year, groundwater, global markets and water markets are greatly reducing the economic impacts of the drought on California’s agriculture and consumers worldwide. Still, considerable local suffering will remain in harder-hit areas.”
California growers have shifted toward higher revenue crops – fruits, vegetables and nuts – over the years to maximize their return-per-gallon of water, says the Pacific Institute. The drought adds impetus to the trend.
The USDA estimates fresh fruit and vegetable prices in the grocery store will rise by a moderate 3 percent this year. California is the premiere U.S. state for fresh produce but there is sizable production in the rest of the country. Imports supply half of the fresh fruit and more than a quarter of the fresh vegetables consumed by Americans. Imports also account for nearly 40 percent of frozen vegetables, 15 percent of canned vegetables, more than one-third of fruit juice and canned fruit, and one-fifth of dried fruit in the U.S. diet.
More than 100 growers in the San Joaquin Delta submitted proposals for carrying out a 25-percent cut in water deliveries this year, reports the Stockton Record. The growers, who hold “senior” water rights, volunteered for the cut in exchange for a guarantee that they will get the remaining 75 percent. The state Water Resources Control Board accepted the offer on May 22 and gave growers 10 days to spell out how they would comply.
In an op-ed, California Agriculture Secretary Karen Ross said agriculture’s contribution to the state economy is larger than the 2 percent that is often cited. “Food is central to California in more than just the nutritional sense. It contributes to nearly every aspect of our economy and our lives, an important point to keep in mind as we weigh what our water is worth during this drought, and the next one,” says the op-ed.
The drought in California created an opening for winegrowers in Washington State, perennially a distant No. 2 to the Golden State in wine, says the New York Times. “Since 2010 alone, wine-grape acreage in Washington has increased by 22 percent, according to state figures, to about 50,000 acres. At the same time, acreage for many other historically important crops — from potatoes to wheat — has been flat or in decline.”
The UC-Davis paper, “Preliminary analysis: 2015 drought economic impact,” is available here.