Egg prices will run an average 25 percent higher this year than expected two months ago – and at record high prices – because of the worst avian influenza epidemic ever to hit U.S. poultry farms, says the government. In its monthly WASDE report, the USDA estimated that the bird flu, which has affected 47.1 million fowl, would reduce egg production by 5 percent this year and by 4.5 percent in 2016. Hardest hit by the epidemic are Iowa, the No. 1 egg state, and Minnesota, the leader in turkey production.
The USDA predicted the avian influenza would reduce turkey production by 7 percent and raise the national average turkey price by 4 percent. For 2016, turkey production is expected to drop by 3 percent and prices will be 1 percent higher.
“Turkey production is reduced for both 2015 and 2016 as Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has significantly affected supplies of turkeys and the expected pace of flock recovery results in a reduced 2016 production forecast,” said the USDA. “Turkey exports are reduced for both 2015 and 2016 as supplies are tightened by HPAI.”
“Egg production for 2015 and 2016 is also lowered as HPAI has impacted the laying flock, and the forecast into 2016 reflects the expected speed at which the flock can be rebuilt,” said the department. Lower domestic production would be offset partially by dramatically larger egg imports – by 32 percent, or 10 million dozen eggs, this year
The USDA’s forecast of an egg price surge was based on likely prices to be paid by volume buyers of Grade A Large eggs in New York. The forecast for 2015 is $1.63 a dozen, up 30 cents from the forecast in April, before the scope of the epidemic could be assessed. The average of $1.42 a dozen for 2014 was a record, said Reuters.
For consumers, the impact of the epidemic can be expressed simply. Americans will consume an average 248.9 eggs per person this year, compared to the April estimate of 263 eggs per person, a drop of 14.1 eggs. For 2016, the average is forecast at 251.7 eggs per person.
The USDA’s running tally says 30.7 million fowl in Iowa and 9 million fowl in Minnesota were lost to the virus. State officials say Iowa’s losses include 24 million laying hens, or 8 percent of U.S. hens laying table eggs.