trade war

While China may not meet the first-year target under the "phase one" trade agreement, it is buying huge amounts of U.S. food, agriculture, and seafood products that could total $31 billion over 12 months, said Iowa State economist Wendong Zhang at a farm conference on Thursday. Neither Zhang nor Ohio State professor Ian Sheldon said they expected the Biden administration to roll back U.S. tariffs on China in the near term.

The winner of the presidential election on Tuesday, whether it’s President Trump or Democratic nominee Joe Biden, will face agricultural issues that include the trade war with China and the approaching end of mammoth stopgap subsidies that have propped up farm income for two years in a …

The "phase one" agreement that de-escalated the Sino-U.S. trade war is not paying off in massive sales of U.S. products, including food and agricultural exports, to China or in the long-term reform of Chinese trade practices, said Chad Brown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "(President) Trump's trade war has failed to address what really ails the U.S.-China trade relationship," wrote Brown in a blog. "It is time for a new approach."

Five weeks after saying he was hopeful China would import $36.6 billion of U.S. food, agricultural and seafood products this year, Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue is less certain the target will be met. A spate of sales to China during August and September has raised hopes in farm country that the goal, set in the "phase one" trade agreement, would be met despite a slow start.

With its new offer of $14 billion in coronavirus relief, the Trump administration could spend $50 billion — quadruple the cost of the auto industry bailout — in less than three years to buffer the impact of trade war and pandemic on agriculture. Farm groups welcomed the second round of coronavirus assistance while critics said it was "old-fashioned vote-buying" ahead of the Nov. 3 presidential election.

U.S. farm income, buoyed by record-setting farm subsidies this year, will sink in the new year with the disappearance of government payments to buffer the effects of the trade war and the coronavirus pandemic on agriculture, said the FAPRI think tank on Thursday. Farm groups and their allies in Congress are likely to seek billions of dollars in new federal assistance, said analysts.

The expected six-month review of the Sino-U.S. trade agreement failed to materialize on Saturday but President Trump expressed satisfaction with the increasing pace of farm export sales to China. During a news conference, Trump said, "China has been buying a lot of — a lot of things, and they're doing it to keep me happy but they're dreaming about Joe Biden."

China bought $188 million worth of U.S. soybeans on Monday, continuing a string of purchases that began last week, as the world's two largest economies approach a six-month review of the "phase one" agreement that de-escalated the trade war.

China is far short of meeting its "phase one" commitment to buy huge amounts of U.S. food and ag exports, but Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said, "We expect a big shipping season this fall." On Thursday, Chinese companies made one of the largest corn purchases in half a century of USDA records.

U.S. farm income, under pressure this year from the trade war and coronavirus pandemic, could fall off a cliff next year when record-setting federal payments are due to end, according to early assessments. A plunge in income could be avoided by cost-cutting on the farm, a recovery in commodity demand, or a new multibillion-dollar round of federal aid, but they are not assured, say analysts.

Throttled by pandemic, U.S. farm exports this year will barely exceed last year's totals, wiping out hopes of a speedy recovery from trade-war losses, said the USDA. Sales to China are rising but slower than projected when the "phase one" trade agreement with Beijing took effect in February, and far from the tripling necessary to satisfy the purchase levels specified in the pact.(No paywall)