Two analyses say the record-setting U.S. corn crop is around 14.06 billion bushels, or 2 percent smaller than USDA estimated 11 days ago. That would mean slightly smaller inventories and somewhat higher farm-gate prices, now forecast to be lowest in eight years.

Corn, long-grain rice and sorghum are the most likely of the crops in the farm program to generate a subsidy payment because of low market prices, say economists Carl Zulauf of Ohio State University and Gary Schnitkey of U-Illinois. "Payments are far from certain," they write at farmdoc daily, "if prices strengthen due to lower production or higher demand." Their calculations, an update of an earlier blog, are based on USDA's estimates of season-average prices and yields nationwide. The new Agriculture Risk Coverage plan is more likely to trigger a payment than the Price Loss Coverage plan PLC allows large payouts.

Kansas "is potentially a huge problem" for Republicans aiming to take control of the Senate, says Sabato's Crystal Ball, which currently projects the GOP to gain from 5-8 seats in the Nov 4 elections. The Crystal Ball points to polls that suggest a tie or that Independent Greg Orman may be leading incumbent Republican Pat Roberts, a senior member of the Senate Agriculture Committee. "We’re still calling the race Leans Republican but it may drift into Toss-up land soon," says the Crystal Ball.

President Obama selected Dallas Tonsager to a second stint as a member of the Farm Credit Administration board, announced the White House. Tonsager served on the board from 2004-09 and then was Agriculture undersecretary for rural development from 2009-13. A South Dakota native, Tonsager has been active in rural economic development for decades.

Rep Collin Peterson, the Democratic leader on the House Agriculture Committee, uses his legislative successes on the 2014 farm law - retention of sugar subsidies and creation of a new dairy subsidy program - as talking points for re-election, says Bloomberg. Peterson's district leans Republican and the GOP congressional committee is spending heavily on ads to defeat him. "Farming defines the towns that dot the region’s two-lane highways. Along with (sugar) beets, the district is the nation’s biggest producer of turkeys and the fourth-biggest of corn and soybeans," says Bloomberg.

Responding to extensive public comment, the Food and Drug Administration revised a proposed rule on safety standards for growing, harvesting, packing and holding fresh fruits and vegetables. In a Federal Register notice today, FDA said it would accept public comments until Dec 15 on the several provisions it identified for change. The rule initially was proposed last year.

President Obama directed the government to combat the rise of antibiotic-resistant bacteria, with the Agriculture Department taking a major role. The executive order signed by Obama also told FDA to eliminate agricultural use of medically important antibiotics as growth-promoting agent. The agency started work on that point in December with drugmakers given three years to make the transition. Agriculture is commonly believed to buy 80 percent of antibiotics annually.

U.S. beef imports are forecast to run 19 percent above the 2013 level and total 2.68 billion pounds this year, says USDA in its monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry report. "Imports have picked up in recent months owing to lower domestic beef production and strong consumer demand," said USDA. "Strong import demand is expected to continue (through 2015) due to lower U.S. beef supplies and strong U.S. beef prices expected to draw supplies from abroad."

The government will pay up to half of the cost to remove Florida citrus trees infected with the ruinous citrus greening disease and two-thirds of the cost of planting new ones, said Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack. Florida is the No 1 citrus state, responsible for more than 60 percent of U.S. production. Citrus is a $9 billion industry for Florida.

The Agriculture Department approved for sale two soybean varieties and one corn variety genetically engineered by Dow to tolerate the weedkiller 2,4-D, a widely used herbicide. The varieties would be an alternative to Monsanto's GE crops that resist glyphosate. There are reports of "superweeds" that survive spraying with glyphosate. The Center for Food Safety, a foe of GE crops, said it "will pursue all available legal options to stop commercialization of these dangerous crops." Opponents say 2,4-D poses health and environmental risks, including its own version of herbicide-resistant weeds.

Sixteen major food and beverage companies sold 6.4 trillion fewer calories in 2012 than they did in 2007, says the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, which paid for an independent evaluation of sales. The companies had pledged to cut 1 trillion calories by 2012 and 1.5 trillion calories by 2015. In total, the companies sold products containing 60.4 trillion calories in 2007.

A University of Missouri think tank lowered its forecasts of farm-gate prices for corn, wheat and soybeans because of huge inventories that are building up. It will take three years for prices to recover, said the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, which slashed by 10 percent its forecast of the average price for this year's corn crop, expected to be a record 14.4 billion bushels.

The House Agriculture chairman says he expects USDA to test the "work first" format as a way to move poor people up the job ladder and off the food stamp rolls. The approach worked as part of welfare reform, said chairman Frank Lucas during a hearing on employment and training programs associated with food stamps. "These programs are designed to get individuals to work as soon as possible and then offer additional training so they can improve their earnings," he said.

Australia expects to export the least amount of wheat in five years due to a smaller harvest and lower demand by China for the grain, said AgriMoney. The government forecaster ABARES said wheat exports would total 18.1 million tonnes in 2014/15. "The revised forecast represents a decline of 234,000 tonnes year on year and would represent the weakest performance since 2009/10 although still representing a higher number than the 10-year average," said AgriMoney. Australia is one of the five leading wheat exporters of the world.

A Chinese trade delegation signed 21 purchase agreements with U.S. exporters for 4.8 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans worth $2.3 billion, said the U.S. Soybean Export Council. Reuters said the agreements were announced at the end of a week-long tour. The agreements equal 4.5 percent of this year's crop. China is the world's largest soybean importer and buys two-thirds of global exports. USDA estimates Chinese imports at 74 million tonnes in 2014/15.

Researchers at the University of Delaware are looking at soil bacteria as a defense against arsenic build-up in rice, one of the leading food crops globally, says the New York Times. Long-term exposure to arsenic can be damaging to human health. One bacterium, Pantoa agglomerans, seems to reduce arsenic in the stems of rice plants to one-eighth of former levels, says scientist Harsh Bais in the Times article, which says it is the first microbe shown to reduce arsenic in rice. Research is now looking at whether the change affects rice quality.

The money earmarked for farm subsidies by the 2014 farm law represent a "lost opportunity to use the funds for programs that unequivocally have the potential to increase social welfare," writes Bruce Babcock of Iowa State University in Choices, the journal of agricultural economics. "Examples include agricultural research, agricultural pollution prevention, invasive species control, transportation infrastructure investments, increased food quality and food safety inspections, and nutrition programs."

The period of peak tornado activity in the southern and central Plains occurs up to two weeks earlier than it did 60 years ago, says a study by Montana State University. The authors of the study say documentation of the shift could help residents of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and northern Texas prepare for the destructive storms. Peak activity in "Tornado Alley" runs from early May to early July. That's seven days earlier than in the mid-1950s. Aside from Nebraska, the shift was nearly two weeks.

Independent Greg Orman leads third-term Republican Sen Pat Roberts, 41-34, in Kansas according to a survey by Public Policy Polling that was released to Pollster. The poll said 15 percent were undecided, 6 percent supported Democrat Chad Taylor, who has dropped out of the race, and 4 percent backed libertarian Randall Batson. PPP said Roberts was deeply unpopular; Democrats and independents overwhelmingly back Orman. The margin of error was +/-2.7 points.

The poverty rate in rural America was 16.1 percent, down sharply from the previous year, but still notably higher than the U.S. average, said the Census Bureau's annual Income and Poverty report. Census said the rural poverty rate dropped by 1.6 points for 2013, from 17.7 percent in 2013. One-fifth of Americans live in rural areas.