Growers may be prevented by bad weather from planting 1.1 million acres of their intended record 84.6 million acres of soybeans, says economist John Newton of U-Illinois.
"The demand for corn for ethanol production appears to be on solid footing for the next 18 months," says economist Darrel Good of U-Illinois. "While growth may be limited, a setback is not expected."
"Much has been made of a potential supply disruption impacting the availability of turkeys during the Thanksgiving holiday," say economists John Newton and Todd Kuethe of U-Illinois, who rebut the idea at farmdoc daily. They say the monthly Cold Storage report shows turkey stockpiles are 5-percent larger than a year ago and other USDA reports show turkey production from January-April was up by 7 percent from the same point in 2014.
The average 100-million-gallon-a-year ethanol plant in Iowa had a record profit of 54 cents a gallon in 2014, says economist Scott Irwin of U-Illinois at farmdoc daily.
The average age of U.S. farmers is on the rise - 57.8 in 2012 vs 53.2 in 1997, according to USDA data. But economist Todd Keuthe of U-Illinois says that "a closer look at the data reveals the 'aging farmer problem' may be overstated by some."
Corn futures prices are the highest in five months and "are expected to remain firm to slightly higher" for the near term, says economist Darrel Good of U-Illinois.
Wheat farmers planted the smallest amount of winter wheat in five years and 5 percent less than last year, said the government, based on a survey of growers in early December. Winter wheat is planted in the fall, lies dormant during the winter and sprouts in the spring for harvest in early summer. The total of 40.2452 million acres was far below trade expectations and also was the second-smallest figure in a decade.
Ethanol makers are likely to need at least 5 billion bushels of corn for making the renewable fuel in the coming year despite the biofuel selling at a premium to gasoline, say economists Scott Irwin and Darrel Good of U-Illinois.
Measured on a per-acre basis, capital purchases, such as machinery and buildings, by grain farmers have more than tripled, says economist Gary Schnitkey of U-Illinois, who warns farmers will have to tighten their belts.
The Agriculture Department lowered its estimates of the corn and wheat crops marginally and raised its estimate of the soybean crop by 1 percent in its monthly crop report.