trade war

As a consequence of the Sino-U.S. trade war, Brazil is likely to ship nearly 60 million tonnes of soybeans to China this calendar year, a 9-percent increase from 2017, say USDA analysts. While the United States is effectively shut out of China because of high tariffs, "U.S. trade opportunities for markets outside of China would rise by nearly 13 million tonnes in the coming (trade) year, compared to 2016/17," according to the monthly Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade report.

When it decides whether to make a second round of Trump tariff payments, the USDA said on Thursday, it will consider changes in tariffs, commodity prices, and other market conditions since it announced that $4.7 billion would be split among the producers of seven commodities this fall.

The mammoth corn and soybean crops awaiting harvest across America are larger than expected, the USDA said on Wednesday in its monthly Crop Production report.

Stung by a trade war with China, ordinarily the purchaser of one-third of the U.S. soybean crop, farmers will switch decisively to corn in 2019, reinstating it as the most widely grown crop in the country, according to a Farm Futures survey of growers.

Soybeans are the largest U.S. farm export to China, and growers of the oilseed may be in line for huge federal payments, worth an average of $85 an acre, to offset the impact of retaliatory Chinese tariffs. Corn growers, meanwhile, might not get enough per acre to buy a cup of coffee at many restaurants.

With commodity prices dropping and farm income projected to plummet, America’s farmers are growing increasingly anxious over the lack of specifics about how much money they’re going to get, and when they’re going to get it, from President Trump’s $12-billion bailout, reports The Wall Street Journal.

More than a third of farmers view President Trump less favorably than they did before the current trade war, according to a new poll by Farm Journal. The survey of 2,300 farmers also found that only a slim majority of those who supported Trump in the presidential election would vote for him again.

The U.S.'s current trade war expands beyond China—India, Mexico and Turkey also have placed tariffs on U.S. fruits and nuts. The cumulative effect of the tariffs could cost the U.S. fruit and nut industries $2.64 billion per year directly and an additional $700 million by reducing prices in alternative markets, says a study by the Agricultural Issues Center at the University of California.

The slump in commodity prices that has accompanied the ongoing tit-for-tat trade war has sapped the farm economy this summer and poses financial risks going into the fall, said Federal Reserve banks in Chicago and Kansas City on Thursday.

Chinese imports of soybeans during July were 8 percent smaller than in June as the nation digested a soy glut at its ports, said AgriCensus on Wednesday. Imports tumbled at the same time that China imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods in the escalating tit-for-tat trade war with the United States.

The Trump administration is going ahead with 25 percent tariffs on $16 billion in high-tech imports from China, said the U.S. trade representative's office on Tuesday. Customs officers will begin collection of the duties on Aug 23.

Seven of 10 farmers participating in a Purdue poll said they expect lower net income this year due to the tit-for-tat tariff war - a dour outlook that pulled down the monthly Ag Economy Barometer to its lowest reading since President Trump was elected in November 2016. The 26-point drop wiped out the remnants of "Trump bump" agricultural euphoria that propelled the barometer to a record high as Trump took office.

As it did eight years ago, Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election has ignited a surge of enthusiasm among farmers, although two-fifths of them say there is a risk of a damaging trade war, said a Purdue University poll released on Tuesday. The Ag Economy Barometer, a gauge of farmer confidence, surged 30 points to its highest reading since May 2021.