Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said the odds of a multibillion-dollar round of trade war payments to farmers this year are “less than 10 percent,” although a senior lawmaker said the payments may be "absolutely vital" for survival in the Farm Belt. China will turn to the U.S. market for soybeans “late this spring, this summer,” Perdue predicted during a House Agriculture hearing on Wednesday.
Farmers are optimistic about the resumption of trade with China and, as a result, fewer of them believe the Trump administration will send trade war payments to producers this year, said a Purdue University poll on Tuesday. Fewer than half of the producers contacted by the Ag Economy Barometer said they anticipated payments this year, compared to nearly six out of 10 last fall.
China can satisfy two objectives — filling a huge gap in its meat supply and complying with the "phase one" trade agreement with the United States — by buying American-grown pork, say two Iowa State University economists.
U.S. ag exports have gained limited traction from President Trump's ballyhooed trade victories, but Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue is optimistic that demand will improve. "I hope we can show that a third round [of trade war payments] is not needed for 2020," Perdue said in a statement. "We still believe farmers want trade rather than aid."
U.S. farmers will harvest their largest corn crop ever this year, fueled by the largest plantings since 2013 — growing so much corn that carry-over stocks will be the largest in more than three decades, according to USDA's projection at its annual Ag Outlook Forum. The soybean crop would be the fourth-largest on record, with exports recovering to pre-trade-war levels thanks to "increasing global import demand, particularly for China."
Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said he believes China will meet the goals of the "phase one" trade agreement, although the USDA's new estimate of sales — $14 billion this fiscal year — is only one-third of the target. "We believe those numbers will be surpassed," Perdue said Thursday at the USDA's annual Ag Outlook Forum.
If farmers rush into soybeans this spring, they could produce too much of the oilseed even if China, as required under the “phase one” agreement, makes large purchases of agricultural exports, according to a university economist. Meanwhile, China said it would allow importers to seek tariff …
This week's White House budget proposal to cut crop insurance by 31 percent and to tighten eligibility rules for farm subsidies would save less in 10 years than the administration spent to mitigate the impact of the Sino-U.S. trade war on 2018 and 2019 farm production, said an economist.
The chairman of the Farm Credit Administration appealed for Farm Belt patience on Trump trade agreements on Wednesday. "The groundwork has been laid for trade normalization and improved farm prices," said Glen Smith during a House Appropriations subcommittee hearing.
Farmers and ranchers are on their way to receiving $14.5 billion in trade war payments on their 2019 production, but that aid is skewed toward large farms and Southern states, said the senior Democrat on the Senate Agriculture Committee on Thursday.