Aided by the Sino-U.S. trade war, the U.S. soybean inventory doubled to a record 913 million bushels in one year, the government said on Thursday. At the same time, the USDA estimated that total will be cut in half by next September.
A hard freeze is forecast across a significant portion of the western Corn Belt, with 14 percent of the U.S. corn crop and 5 percent of the soybean crop at risk of freeze damage, said forecaster Maxar on Wednesday.
The U.S. corn stockpile is the smallest in three years and a comparatively small crop, delayed by the rainiest spring in a quarter-century, is slow to come to harvest this year, the government said in a pair of reports on Monday. The soybean stockpile also is markedly smaller than expected, although it is still the largest on record.
Private exporters reported their second major sale of U.S. soybeans to China as the two nations prepare for working-level meetings to resolve their trade war, said the USDA on Monday. Mid-level negotiators are expected to meet on Friday, ahead of ministerial discussions in early October.
Three years of bumper crops collided with the Sino-U.S. trade war to create the largest U.S. soybean stockpile ever, a price-depressing 1 billion bushels at the start of this month. But by next Sept. 1, the so-called carry-over will be just two-thirds of its current size, estimated the USDA on Thursday.
After a weekend in which Trump lashed out angrily at China, calling its leader "an enemy," Trump was making nice again at the end of the G7 meeting on Monday, praising Chinese President Xi Jinping as a "great man" and saying prospects for a trade deal looked brighter. Soybean prices rose on the news.
The world market for soybeans nearly doubled in a 10-year span, growing at an average 7.5 million tonnes a year through 2018, say USDA analysts in the monthly Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade report. But the go-go days of growth may be over, due to retrenchment in China, the dominant buyer. …
A day after the White House reported constructive talks with China, President Trump expanded the Sino-U.S. trade war on Thursday, saying China wasn’t buying enough U.S. farm exports and Beijing wasn’t moving fast enough in negotiations.
If China eliminated its punishing trade war tariffs on U.S. soybeans, net farm income would climb by nearly $3 billion this year and $4 billion in 2020, said three university economists in examining one aspect of the Sino-U.S. trade war. The two countries will resume trade talks next week in Shanghai.