If there is no near-term resolution of the Sino-U.S. trade war, the Trump administration will need to spend billions of dollars in additional trade war payments to farmers and ranchers or watch farm income sink, said two economists on Monday. Either way, there would be painful restructuring in the sector, which has collected more than $10 billion in Trump tariff payments this year.
Between a weather-delayed harvest and uncertainties about the demand for their crops, farmers have been slow to sell corn and soybeans this fall. One consequence is tighter margins and revenue pressures on country elevators, said a report from ag lender CoBank.
In the largest numbers yet, farmers say they expect a trade deal soon with China and by even larger margins, they believe it will benefit them, said a Purdue University poll released on Tuesday, the same day that President Trump said an agreement could be a year away. “In some ways, I like the …
Aided by the Sino-U.S. trade war, the U.S. soybean inventory doubled to a record 913 million bushels in one year, the government said on Thursday. At the same time, the USDA estimated that total will be cut in half by next September.
A hard freeze is forecast across a significant portion of the western Corn Belt, with 14 percent of the U.S. corn crop and 5 percent of the soybean crop at risk of freeze damage, said forecaster Maxar on Wednesday.
The U.S. corn stockpile is the smallest in three years and a comparatively small crop, delayed by the rainiest spring in a quarter-century, is slow to come to harvest this year, the government said in a pair of reports on Monday. The soybean stockpile also is markedly smaller than expected, although it is still the largest on record.
Private exporters reported their second major sale of U.S. soybeans to China as the two nations prepare for working-level meetings to resolve their trade war, said the USDA on Monday. Mid-level negotiators are expected to meet on Friday, ahead of ministerial discussions in early October.
Three years of bumper crops collided with the Sino-U.S. trade war to create the largest U.S. soybean stockpile ever, a price-depressing 1 billion bushels at the start of this month. But by next Sept. 1, the so-called carry-over will be just two-thirds of its current size, estimated the USDA on Thursday.
After a weekend in which Trump lashed out angrily at China, calling its leader "an enemy," Trump was making nice again at the end of the G7 meeting on Monday, praising Chinese President Xi Jinping as a "great man" and saying prospects for a trade deal looked brighter. Soybean prices rose on the news.