Stable near-term corn, soy, and wheat prices at U.S. farm gate, USDA says
For the next few years, season-average prices for U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat, the three most widely grown crops in the country, will largely mirror the market prices for this year’s crops, projected the Agriculture Department on Thursday. The steep declines in farm-gate prices since 2022 would be replaced by a period of relative stability, according to the USDA’s long-term baseline.
Corn and soybean stockpiles are biggest in four years, expected to grow larger
U.S. grain bins and warehouses held the largest corn and soybean reserves in four years at the beginning of the fall harvest, said the Agriculture Department on Monday. The stockpiles were expected to grow larger still due to bumper crops this year that would keep the pressure on weakening commodity prices for months to come.
Exports boom as bumper corn crop pulls down farm-gate prices
U.S. corn exports are climbing for the third year in a row and will be the fourth largest on record this trade year, thanks to the mammoth crop now being harvested and falling market prices, said the Agriculture Department on Thursday. The 15.2 billion-bushel crop would be just a hair smaller than the record set last year.
Corn, soy, wheat prices to run at pre-pandemic levels in years ahead
After soaring at the start of this decade, season-average prices for the three major U.S. crops will drop to pre-pandemic levels and stay there for the near term, said a University of Missouri think tank on Thursday. Cattle would be the most notable exception to an overall decline in crop and livestock values.
Reduced interest overseas in U.S. soybeans
The new soybean marketing year opens on Saturday, and early orders for the U.S. crop are the smallest in years, says a research brief from rural lender CoBank. Global demand is down in the face of the strong dollar, slow economic growth, and uncertainties about U.S. trade policy in an election year.
Bumper U.S. crops this fall will drive farm-gate prices lower, says USDA
Farmers will reap their largest soybean crop ever this year, and the third-largest corn crop, said the Agriculture Department on Monday in its first forecast of the fall harvest. The mammoth crops will outpace demand and drive down prices, it said. Corn and soybean inventories would balloon to the largest size in six years and weigh on commodity markets far into 2025.
Multiyear run of low corn and soybean prices looms
Corn and soybean farmers should plan for much lower market prices for their crops in the near term, given trends in the futures markets, said six analysts writing at the farmdoc daily blog. “We may be again entering a period of lower prices, like that from 2014 through 2019,” they said.
Lower crop returns will pressure farmland market, say analysts
The boom in corn and soybean prices since 2020 is fading away, with lower farm income likely in the near term, wrote three agricultural economists in the farmdoc daily blog. “Returns to farming have declined, suggesting that cash rents should decline as well. How quickly or how much cash rents decline will depend on how far commodity prices fall as well as potential policy responses to those declines,” they said.
China falls to third place as U.S. ag export market, USDA says
U.S. food and ag exports to China will fall by $6 billion this fiscal year in the biggest slump in sales since the Sino-U.S. trade war, forecast the Agriculture Department on Wednesday. Mexico and Canada will surpass China as the top customers, while the agricultural trade deficit will widen to $32 billion.
Analyst: ‘Sure looks like’ ag census undercounted corn and soybean acreage
The latest Census of Agriculture, released in February, reported a 2.2 percent decline in U.S. farmland from 2017 to 2022. A portion of that reduction, involving corn and soybean cropland, may be overstated, said Aaron Smith, a professor of agricultural economics at UC-Davis, in a blog.
Brazil, an agricultural giant, could expand cropland by 35 percent, say analysts
Already a major soybean, corn, and cotton grower, Brazil could expand its crop area by 35 percent through the conversion of overgrazed and overgrown pastureland, according to a research agency that is part of the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture. Besides the potential addition of 70 million acres of cropland, Brazil could increase production by devoting more land to second-crop corn, said a team of U.S. university economists.
Serious oversupply looms for renewable diesel
The boom in renewable diesel is driving U.S. production capacity far above the market for the fuel, said agricultural economist Scott Irwin of the University of Illinois on Thursday. “It’s going to be a very ugly 2024” for refiners, said Irwin during a webinar.
U.S. crop sector insulates itself from world market with biofuels, says analyst
After decades of pursuing sales to foreign buyers, the U.S. crop sector is “once again becoming domestic market-focused, due mainly to biofuels policy,” said Scott Irwin, an agricultural economist at the University of Illinois, on Wednesday. It would be a significant, albeit gradual, change in focus.
Big crops and lower prices for U.S. farmers in 2024
American farmers will harvest monster corn and soybean crops this year, including the largest soybean crop ever, at 4.5 billion bushels, and the third corn crop in four years to top 15 billion bushels, projected the Agriculture Department on Thursday. Season-average prices for the crops would fall for the second year in a row from the spike in commodity markets created by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
EPA order allows sale and use of existing stocks of dicamba
Retailers are allowed to sell and farmers are allowed to use existing stocks of the weedkiller dicamba on this year’s soybean and cotton crops no later than July 30, said the EPA on Wednesday. A federal judge in Arizona overturned the EPA’s approval of three dicamba-containing herbicides last week, potentially disrupting the spring planting season.
Drought more widespread in corn and soybean areas than wheat territory
Half of U.S. corn and soybean territory is in drought, compared to one-third of wheat land, said weekly drought reports on Thursday. Drought is far less prevalent for winter wheat than it was a year ago, while conditions for soybeans are little changed and corn has seen an 11 percentage point decline, said the USDA’s Ag in Drought report.
Brazil a stronger U.S. competitor in soybean sales
In the past decade, Brazil has improved its network of roads, railways, and ports, “significantly altering” its competitiveness with the United States in the world soybean market, said an Agriculture Department report on Thursday. Continued improvements would bolster Brazil’s standing as the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter.
Soybean oil rapidly gaining ground as renewable diesel feedstock
The skyrocketing growth in the production of renewable diesel has been accompanied by a dramatic expansion of soybean oil as a feedstock for the fuel, said three University of Illinois agricultural economists on Wednesday. Soybean oil’s share of the feedstock market has tripled in the past few years, to 27.4 percent.
GM crops grown on 55 percent of U.S. cropland, says USDA
Farmer adoption of genetically modified crop varieties is spreading beyond the well-known dominance of the major field crops of corn, soybeans, and cotton, said a USDA report. When lesser-known GM crops such as canola, potatoes, and apples are counted, about 55 percent of U.S. cropland is planted to GM varieties, said the Economic Research Service report.