Sabato's Crystal Ball

Bustos recipe for Democratic success in the Midwest: Bread-and-butter issues

A report co-authored by Rep. Cheri Bustos of Illinois says that “national Democrats must acknowledge and stay focused on the bread-and-butter challenges facing hardworking families” to gain the rural and working-class support vital to winning elections in the Midwest.

Three House ag panelists’ races are toss-ups; so is House control

The Republican–Democrat battle for control of the House “looks something like a coin flip,” says Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which says three members of the House Agriculture Committee are toss-ups for re-election next year.

Tougher race expected for House Ag panelist Bost

It’s still 15 months until the 2018 midterm elections, but prospects have turned cloudier for Illinois Rep. Mike Bost, a member of the House Agriculture Committee, says Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Now that a Democrat challenger has announced, the political tipsheet rates the race in the southern Illinois district as “likely” Republican, a change from its previous “safe” Republican assessment.

After healthcare vote, two House Ag races in toss-ups

Two Republicans on the House Agriculture Committee, Jeff Denham of California and Don Bacon of Nebraska, are toss-ups for re-election following their votes for the GOP-drafted health care bill, said the political newsletter Sabato's Crystal Ball. The races, previously rated as "leans Republican," are in districts where Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton ran well, according to the newsletter.

House Ag panelist says three terms is enough

New York state Republican Chris Gibson, part of the opening-day rebellion against House Speaker John Boehner, says he will not run for re-election in 2016 so he can consider running for statewide office in 2018.

Collin Peterson a modest favorite in early 2016 size-up

The ranking Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee, Collin Peterson, rates as a modest favorite for re-election in 2016, says the political newsletter Sabato's Crystal Ball in an analysis issued 23 months before the election.

Another Ag panelist joins Senate leadership

Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, an Agriculture Committee, member will be part of Democratic leadership in the next session. She was elected to chair the Democratic Steering and Outreach committee.

Heavy spending in re-election bid by food stamp critic

Some $10 million could be spent on the U.S. House race between Rep Steve Southerland and Democrat Gwen Graham in the Florida panhandle, says WTXL-TV in Tallahassee.

Cotton stands taller in Arkansas

Arkansas Sen Mark Pryor's chances are fading against Republican Tom Cotton, saysSabato's Crystal Ball, adding "it’s increasingly hard to see him overcoming Arkansas’ hard shift to the right.

A Kansas toss-up, an Iowa “safe” and a rule of thumb

"Sen Pat Roberts (R) of Kansas may be making a comeback after having been left for dead on the battlefield," says the political newsletter Sabato's Crystal Ball, which now lists the Senate race as a toss-up vs the previous "Leans Independent."

Pryor and Cotton debate in key farm-state Senate race

In the first debate of the Senate race in Arkansas, Sen Mark Pryor, chairman of the Senate Appropriations subcommittee on agriculture, said opponent first-term Rep Tom Cotton, a Republican, is more interested in foreign policy than...

Orman “small favorite” in Kansas, Benishek likely in Michigan

Independent Greg Orman is "at least a small favorite" to defeat third-term Sen Pat Roberts, a senior member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, in Kansas, says the Sabato's Crystal Ball.

Electoral path clears for school lunch critic in House

House Agriculture Committee member Rodney Davis of Illinois, a critic of new school lunch rules, looks like a surer bet for a second term from central Illinois.

Iowa leans toward Ernst, Kansas leans straight up

Republican Joni Ernst's folksiness seems to be paying off in the retail politics of Iowa, says the weekly political tip sheet Sabato's Crystal Ball, in rating the Senate race in the Hawkeye State as "leans Republican," vs the previous "Toss-up."

House Ag Committee member has 33-vote lead in primary

Second-term Rep Scott DesJarlais, a House Agriculture Committee member, had a 33-vote lead with all precincts reporting in his Tennessee congressional district, a razor-thin margin in a race that may not be decided until the month, said the Associated Press.