livestock prices

U.S. net farm income will be a much better than expected $140 billion this year, the fourth-highest total on record, forecast the Agriculture Department on Thursday. Production expenses are down for the first time since 2018, while farmers are pocketing increased revenue from eggs, cattle, milk, and broiler chickens.

Farmers are on track to harvest some of their largest corn and soybean crops ever, but the ongoing decline in commodity prices is putting farm income in question, said the Beige Book issued by the Federal Reserve Board on Wednesday. Regional Fed banks in Chicago and Minneapolis said the farm income outlook had weakened in recent weeks, while the Kansas City Fed said agricultural conditions in its district “faced headwinds from weak crop prices.”

The largest U.S. farmers and ranchers say the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with its disruption of grain, oil and fertilizer shipping, will drive up their costs of production, according to a Purdue University poll released on Tuesday. The Ag Economy Barometer also showed big operators are tempering somewhat their expectations of soaring input prices.

Farmers in the Midwest and Plains are reaping a cash bonanza that has dramatically improved their finances a year after the pandemic pummeled commodity markets and prompted a record $46 billion in federal payments to agriculture, said three regional Federal Reserve banks on Thursday. (No paywall)

For the third time this year, the Agriculture Department is holding up a regulation that would give livestock on organic farms more elbow room than is common at conventional operations, and this time, it says, it may rewrite the rule, which already is a decade in the making. "We will see the department in court and are confident that we will prevail on this important issue for the organic sector," said the Organic Trade Association, which sued USDA two months ago for unlawful delay of the animal welfare regulation.

President-elect Donald Trump is getting a welcoming handshake from farm groups often identified with Democrats or populists, not just those touting free enterprise and low taxes. The National Farmers Union said in a letter to Trump that the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact, backed by many farm groups, is a threat to the rural economy, so "we hope to work with your administration on fair trade deals."

After a review of farm-sector financial indicators, economist Brent Gloy says, "Caution going forward would be appropriate," particularly for operators who are borrowing money. The commonly used debt-to-asset ratio is low, Gloy writes at the Agricultural Economic Insights blog a day before USDA updates its farm-income forecast, but lesser-known yardsticks, such as the debt-service ratio and times-interest-earned ratio "indicate that financial conditions are as poor as any seen for some time."

The world nearly met its goal of halving hunger by 2015, but will miss its ambitious new goal of eradicating hunger by 2030 without decisive action to raise incomes, expand food production and alleviate income inequality, says a joint report of the OECD and FAO. The new edition of their Agricultural Outlook says the number of undernourished people in the world will drop to 636 million in 2025, compared to 799 million now.