In the past year, the record-large U.S. soybean stockpile shrank by 42 percent, thanks to strong demand for the oilseed and the smallest crop since 2013, said the USDA on Wednesday. Nonetheless, the Sept. 1 inventory of 523 million bushels is the fourth largest since soybeans became a major U.S. crop in the 1940s.
Record-high demand for grain during the 2019/20 marketing year will draw down world grain reserves to their lowest level in five years, said the International Grains Council on Thursday. It would be the third straight year of declines in global carryover stocks.
The International Grains Council forecasts a modest decline in global grain production that will lead to a sharp reduction in the grain “carryover” at the end of 2018/19.
U.S. farmers are headed for massive corn and soybean harvests this year that will mean another year of large stockpiles and will throttle farm-gate prices into the summer of 2019, according to updated USDA projections. The bumper crops would be the latest in a string of record-setting harvests that began early this decade.
The bigger-than-expected corn crop in the United States is helping to drive world cereal grain production to a record for the second year in a row, said the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.
The International Grains Council sharply boosted its estimate of corn consumption in China, pointing to government measures expected to drive up industrial use of the grain 14 percent during 2017/18. The shift in Chinese consumption will affect grain stockpiles worldwide, said the IGC in its monthly Grain Market Report, with the first reduction in five years in the grain "carryover" at the end of the marketing year.
Larger corn crops in Argentina and the United States will push global grain production to the second-highest total ever, just a year after the record was set, said the International Grains Council, based in London. The global appetite for grain continues to grow, likely setting its own record, so the global stockpile will shrink by 5 percent, said the council’s monthly Grain Market Report.
The world’s grain stockpile will shrink nearly 7 percent by the end of the new marketing year, forecasts the International Grains Council. The reason, said the group, is a smaller harvest—down 3 percent—and the second year of record-high consumption.
With the world headed for record-setting wheat, corn and rice harvests, the inventory at the end of this marketing year will be the largest ever — a three-month supply that would weigh on commodity prices, said the International Grains Council. The council's index of grain and oilseed prices, "pressured by increasing heavy spot supplies," was near a five-month low, as farmers in the northern hemisphere report good overall yields.