After two years of higher-than-normal grocery inflation, retail food prices are headed for their first year-over-year decline since 2017, said USDA economists on Thursday. Grocery prices would be an average of 0.4 percent lower this year than in 2023, led by falling prices for pork, eggs, fresh vegetables, and cereal and bakery products.
The FAO index of global commodity prices rose 1.3 percent during July, its second increase since April, reflecting the termination of the Black Sea grain initiative and India's restrictions on rice exports. The increases punctuated a longer-term decline in commodity prices in the past year.
Grocery prices will rise 6.6 percent this year, with lower beef and pork prices helping to constrain the inflation rate after last year’s 11.4 percent rise, said USDA economists. At the start of the year, the USDA forecast an 8.6 percent increase in prices, but it has lowered its estimate for two months in a row.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine fueled a sharp rise in food prices last winter, but prices have fallen for 10 straight months, said the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine drove food prices to record levels during 2022 and the Food Price Index remains elevated after a nine-month decline, said the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.
Higher consumer demand and lower supplies are driving up pork and egg prices, but after increasing for six months in a row, the U.S. food inflation rate for 2022 is unchanged this month, said the USDA on Thursday.
The FAO Food Price Index, a barometer of prices for food commodities, rocketed to a record high immediately after Russia invaded Ukraine and disrupted food supply chains. Now it is down for the third month in a row, with large global harvests at hand, but Ukraine is a new entrant on the list of nations needing food aid, said the UN agency.
After reaching record highs for two months in row, the Food Price Index is marginally lower for the second consecutive month, said the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. The latest decline, in May, was led by lower prices for vegetable oils and dairy products.
Sharply lower prices for palm, sunflower and soybean oils helped pull down the Food Price Index marginally from its record high that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine, said the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. Grain prices also fell during April while meat, dairy and sugar prices rose.
The UN index of food prices, already at a record high, rose by 12.5 percent in reaction to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with world wheat prices soaring nearly 20 percent, said the Food and Agriculture Organization. Wheat prices were so high, said USDA analysts in a separate report, that consumers in sub-Saharan Africa may find it cheaper to eat rice, ordinarily the more expensive staple grain.
World food prices soared by 28 percent during 2021, according to an index based on five major commodities, including cereal grains, meat, and sugar, said the UN Food and Agriculture Organization on Thursday. The abrupt increase, as the world recovered from the economic collapse that accompanied the pandemic, ended five years of relative stability in the Food Price Index.
Pushed by high meat prices, the Food Price Index will surge by 3.5 percent this year, its largest increase since the 5.5 percent rise in 2008, said the USDA on Tuesday. Food prices typically rise about 2.4 percent a year.
Americans will see the second year in a row of larger-than-usual food price increases, with food inflation now forecast at 3.5 percent this year, following the pandemic-driven 3.4 percent increase of 2020, said USDA economists on Thursday.
Sharply lower prices for vegetable oils, down nearly 10 percent in a month, contributed to the first decline in the Food Price Index since last May, said the UN Food and Agriculture Organization on Thursday. The index fell by 2.5 percent in June, although it was still about one-third higher than a year ago.
After increasing for 12 months in a row during the pandemic, international food prices are the highest they've been since September 2011, said the monthly Food Price Index, released on Thursday. The index surged 4.8 percent in May, its largest monthly increase in nearly 11 years.
Global food prices are the highest they've been since June 2014, according to a monthly index compiled by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. The Food Price Index rose by 2.1 percent, its 10th increase in a row, said the FAO on Thursday.
World wheat production will rise for the third year in a row, with growers harvesting a record-large crop this year, say forecasts from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization and the International Grains Council. While they differ slightly on how large the new crop, months away from harvest, will be, they agree Europe will be key.
Americans will eat more chicken, already their favorite meat, as stay-at-home orders have consumers shopping at the supermarket rather than going to restaurants, said ag lender CoBank on Thursday in assessing the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on food producers and processors. (No paywall)
Led by “much weaker” vegetable oil, dairy, and grain prices, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s index of global food prices fell to its lowest level since May 2016. The price of vegetable oil dropped to a 12-year low.