farmdoc daily

The Agriculture Department lowered its estimates of the corn and wheat crops marginally and raised its estimate of the soybean crop by 1 percent in its monthly crop report.

USDA "may want to consider" changing the March 31 deadline for growers to decide which crop subsidy option to take - a traditional plan based on target prices or a new approach based on crop revenue, says economist Carl Zulauf of Ohio State University.

The harvest-time prices for corn and soybeans are significantly below the prices projected last spring, so there is a possibility of payments under crop insurance policies that assure growers of a portion of average crop revenue, said economist Gary Schnitkey of U-Illinois.

Soybeans "are projected to be more profitable than corn in 2014," a reversal from most years, but a situation that is likely to prove true again in the new year, says economist Gary Schnitkey of U-Illinois.

Beef will be in tight supply through 2015 and into 2016 but consumers may get a break from record prices with an increased volume of chicken, turkey and pork, said economist Chris Hurt of Purdue.

Gross revenue per acre for corn growers in northern Illinois is forecast to be the lowest in five years, says economist Gary Schnitkey of U-Illinois.

The corn and soybean harvest is running far behind normal, says the weekly Crop Progress report. Some 31 percent of the corn crop and 53 percent of the soybean crop was in the bin at the start of this week.

Ethanol makers produced 14.15 billion gallons of ethanol during the 12 months ending on Sept 1, coinciding with the corn marketing year, says economist Darrell Good of U-Illinois.

Crop tours generate a lot of attention with their estimates of crop yields or output but the organizers often say little about the level of accuracy they represent.

Growers are more likely to hit the statutory limit on crop subsidies if they choose the Price Loss Coverage option rather than the Agriculture Risk Coverage option, say economists Jonathan Coppess, Gary Schnittkey and Nick Paulson of U-Illinois.

Crop scouts reported strong potential corn yields in southwestern Iowa and the northern half of Illinois as the annual Pro Farmer crop tour headed toward release today of an estimate of the U.S. corn and soybean crops.

Farmland values soared during the agricultural boom that began in 2006, fueled by high commodity prices and low interest rates that made it easier to buy land.

Congress included $625 million in guaranteed funding for bio-energy programs in the 2014 farm policy law, says Jonathan Coppess of U-Illinois at farmdoc daily.

Private and public lenders are scheduled to testify on availability in rural America at a House Agriculture subcommittee hearing.

U.S. farmers said they would plant a record 81.5 million acres of soybeans this spring, putting within reach a record crop that would ease high prices and the tightest supplies in decades.

The winter wheat harvest, at 16 percent complete, is running 4 points behind average, says the weekly Crop Progress report.

Ethanol makers have enjoyed a run of high profits since March 2013, "driven by a combination of steady or rising ethanol prices and falling corn prices," write economists Scott Irwin and Darrel Good at farmdoc daily.

With a wet and cool spring in the Farm Belt, "it would not be surprising for (corn) acreage to fall short of intentions, particularly in northern growing areas," says economist Darrel Good of U-Illinois at farmdocdaily, unless corn prices improve.