farmdoc daily

Farmers harvested 7.4 million acres of winter wheat in the past week, 19 percent of the total crop. The harvest is now 38 percent complete, according to the weekly Crop Progress report.

The impact of the worst epidemic of avian influenza ever to hit U.S. poultry flocks has reached the ethanol industry in the form of smaller sales of distillers dried grains (DDGs), a widely used feed, says DTN.

More than 1 billion bushels of U.S. soybeans are likely to be shipped to China during the current marketing year, say economists John Newton and Todd Keuthe of U-Illinois, who ask, "Are all our beans in one basket?"

Hog farmers are expanding their herds following the record-high market prices of 2014. Production is forecast to rise by 7 percent this year, a surge that is driving down hog prices.

The long run of market prices that began in 2006 lured farmers to expand plantings of corn and soybeans by 20 million acres. Most of the increase came from the Plains states and the South, say economists John Newton and Todd Keuthe of U-Illinois.

The average 100-million-gallon-a-year ethanol plant in Iowa had a record profit of 54 cents a gallon in 2014, says economist Scott Irwin of U-Illinois at farmdoc daily.

After hitting record highs last year, hog prices hit a five-year low in recent weeks, writes Purdue economist Chris Hurt at farmdoc daily. An expansion in hog numbers has "helped create what may be the greatest collapse of hog prices ever.

Agricultural bankers in 10 states in the Midwest and Plains expect a 15-percent decline in farm equipment sales this year, says a survey by Creighton University, in Omaha.

U.S. soybean farmers could reap a near-record 3.81 billion bushels of soybeans this year, adding to an ample stockpile and pulling down prices, says economist Darrel Good of U-Illnois.

The average age of U.S. farmers is on the rise - 57.8 in 2012 vs 53.2 in 1997, according to USDA data. But economist Todd Keuthe of U-Illinois says that "a closer look at the data reveals the 'aging farmer problem' may be overstated by some."

The upturn in U.S. cattle numbers "is likely to continue for multiple years," writes Chris Hurt of Purdue in an analysis of the USDA's semi-annual Cattle inventory report.

Corn futures prices are the highest in five months and "are expected to remain firm to slightly higher" for the near term, says economist Darrel Good of U-Illinois.

Neither the futures market nor the government provide spot-on forecasts of crop prices in the long term, write economists Scott Irwin and Darrel Good at farmdoc daily ahead of the March 31 deadline for grain and soybean farmers to choose a crop subsidy program.

After several years of constrained supplies, pork production will climb by 5 percent this year, says economist Chris Hurt of Purdue. "Pork producers are gearing up to provide their customers with what they want and that is 'More Pork' and 'More Bacon,'"...

Ethanol makers are likely to need at least 5 billion bushels of corn for making the renewable fuel in the coming year despite the biofuel selling at a premium to gasoline, say economists Scott Irwin and Darrel Good of U-Illinois.

"The most profitable year on record" for hog producers "will be 2014 with estimated profits of near $55 a head," says economist Chris Hurt of Purdue.

Measured on a per-acre basis, capital purchases, such as machinery and buildings, by grain farmers have more than tripled, says economist Gary Schnitkey of U-Illinois, who warns farmers will have to tighten their belts.

Wheat yields per acre in Germany were twice as high as on comparable U.S. farms, according to an analysis that looked at production, costs, and profits for representative farms in major wheat-growing regions. "The typical farms in Australia, Germany, Poland, and North Dakota exhibited a positive average economic profit during the 2018 to 2022 period," wrote Purdue professor Michael Langemeier at the farmdoc daily blog.