farm income

Half a century ago, in 1973, I entered the news business as a reporter for a small weekly paper in Missouri. And now, it’s time to leave the party. I will continue my reporting here at Ag Insider through the end of the current Congressional session, at which time Ag Insider will be put to bed one last time. The final edition will go out Monday, December 23.

The two-year decline in commodity prices drove down farm income in the northern Plains this summer, ag bankers said overwhelmingly in a survey by the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, and they expect income to fall again this winter. Farmers have cut back on major purchases and loan demand is up, the bankers said.

“One in five farmers could be pushed out of business by the sharp drop in farm income this year,” said Mississippi Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith at a Senate hearing on disaster aid, and Arkansas Sen. John Boozman asked how rural America could survive the combination of high production costs and lower commodity prices without “significant help” from the government.

With little sign of a breakthrough on the farm bill in Congress, farm groups are shifting their attention to a proposed $21 billion bailout bill. Help is needed because high costs and lower commodity prices are sharply eroding farm income, they say.

For the next few years, season-average prices for U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat, the three most widely grown crops in the country, will largely mirror the market prices for this year’s crops, projected the Agriculture Department on Thursday. The steep declines in farm-gate prices since 2022 would be replaced by a period of relative stability, according to the USDA’s long-term baseline.

The farm economy stabilized in the Midwest and northern Plains but weakened in much of the country this fall as producers nationwide confronted high costs and lower commodity prices, said the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book on Wednesday. “Agricultural activity was flat to down modestly, with some crop prices remaining unprofitably low,” said the national economic summary.

Farmer confidence tumbled by 21 percent in the past two months to its lowest level since 2016, with three of every four farmers saying they expect bad times for the agricultural economy in the year ahead, said Purdue University on Tuesday. Producers taking part in the Ag Economy Barometer survey said they were worried about declining income because of low commodity prices and high production costs.

The government should provide emergency aid to farmers to help them weather sharply lower commodity prices, said Arkansas Sen. John Boozman, the senior Republican on the Senate Agriculture Committee, on Tuesday. Prompt action on emergency aid should be coupled with enactment of a new farm bill yet this year, he said.

U.S. net farm income will be a much better than expected $140 billion this year, the fourth-highest total on record, forecast the Agriculture Department on Thursday. Production expenses are down for the first time since 2018, while farmers are pocketing increased revenue from eggs, cattle, milk, and broiler chickens.

More than half of American farmers say their farming operations are worse off financially now than a year ago, according to a Purdue University poll released on Tuesday, which also found increasing concern about low market prices for crops and livestock. "The weakness in farmer sentiment could indicate that farmers expect this year's farm income downturn to last for an extended period," said the Ag Economy Barometer.

After soaring at the start of this decade, season-average prices for the three major U.S. crops will drop to pre-pandemic levels and stay there for the near term, said a University of Missouri think tank on Thursday. Cattle would be the most notable exception to an overall decline in crop and livestock values.