Farm bill

With little sign of a breakthrough on the farm bill in Congress, farm groups are shifting their attention to a proposed $21 billion bailout bill. Help is needed because high costs and lower commodity prices are sharply eroding farm income, they say.

President Trump rolled up 63 percent of the vote in rural America, a larger margin than in 2016, on the way to winning a second term in the White House on Tuesday. Farm groups offered to work with him on Wednesday to pass the new farm bill, now 14 months overdue, and to bring high costs under control.

The lame-duck session of Congress offers a last chance to enact the new farm bill this year, but it would require compromise on a number of nettlesome policy disputes and an agreement among House and Senate leaders on how much to spend, said farm policy experts. The bill could also be sidetracked by overarching issues such as passing a government funding bill, they cautioned.

Farmer confidence tumbled by 21 percent in the past two months to its lowest level since 2016, with three of every four farmers saying they expect bad times for the agricultural economy in the year ahead, said Purdue University on Tuesday. Producers taking part in the Ag Economy Barometer survey said they were worried about declining income because of low commodity prices and high production costs.

The Republican-controlled House has not advanced a new farm bill because "they just don't have the votes" to pass a bill that is $33 billion over budget, said Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack over the weekend. Senate Agriculture chairwoman Debbie Stabenow was more "practical," he said, by proposing a smaller increase in so-called reference prices and finding the money to pay for it.

The salient question in farm bill negotiations is how large an increase to allow for so-called reference prices that trigger crop subsidy payments, said Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack on Thursday. When that issue is resolved, it would be “relatively simple” to wrap up work on the legislation this year after months of deadlock, he said.

With time running short for action on the new farm bill, Senate Agriculture Committee chairwoman Debbie Stabenow said on Wednesday that the legislation has to consider public nutrition and agricultural programs equally. While lawmakers have disagreed for months on SNAP funding, higher crop subsidy spending, and climate mitigation, they hope to reach an agreement in the near term.

After seeing record profitability in 2022, the U.S. farm sector is in a downturn for an indefinite period, said a band of agricultural economists on Monday. Congress could feel pressure to provide a bailout to buffer the decline in income, at the same time that producers try to pare their costs, they said at a conference sponsored by the Agricultural Business Council of Kansas City.

With Congress resuming work after its summer recess, Senate Agriculture chairmwoman Debbie Stabenow said she would do "everything in my power to pass a farm bill" this year. Farm-state lawmakers have been deadlocked for weeks over SNAP funding, higher crop subsidy spending, and climate mitigation.

U.S. net farm income will be a much better than expected $140 billion this year, the fourth-highest total on record, forecast the Agriculture Department on Thursday. Production expenses are down for the first time since 2018, while farmers are pocketing increased revenue from eggs, cattle, milk, and broiler chickens.

After soaring at the start of this decade, season-average prices for the three major U.S. crops will drop to pre-pandemic levels and stay there for the near term, said a University of Missouri think tank on Thursday. Cattle would be the most notable exception to an overall decline in crop and livestock values.

Republicans are unwilling to compromise on SNAP and climate funding in the new farm bill, and as a result, “we’re stuck,” said Senate Agriculture chairwoman Debbie Stabenow. “The only way you get that done is if it’s bipartisan.” Progress on the farm bill has been stalled for months. House and Senate Republicans want large increases in crop subsidy spending, cuts in SNAP funding, and to be able to use climate funding for soil and water projects that do not capture carbon or reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The Republican-written House farm bill is $33 billion over budget and fails to pay for its large increase in crop subsidies, said congressional scorekeepers in an official cost estimate. House Agriculture chairman Glenn Thompson, who brushed aside earlier warnings about over-spending, said if the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office won't change its mind, he would rely on the House Budget Committee to overrule the CBO.

Except for the “lame duck long shot” of a post-election compromise, the slim chances that Congress will pass a new farm bill this year “have become nonexistent,” said farm policy expert Jonathan Coppess on Thursday. The primary reason is the “long-unspecified demand” by Republicans for higher crop subsidy spending without providing details, wrote Coppess, a USDA official during the Obama era, at the farmdoc daily blog.