U.S. farm income will decline modestly in 2024 and then run at historically high levels in the near term, said the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) think tank at the University of Missouri on Monday. Although well above average, net farm income of around $140 billion annually in coming years would be a step down from the record of $183 billion last year.
After two record-setting years in a row, U.S. net farm income will decline sharply in the near term, pulled down by lower crop and livestock prices, though it will remain well above its 10-year average, said FAPRI on Wednesday. The University of Missouri think tank said food inflation would drop to 4.4 percent this year — less than half of last year’s rate — and run at 2 percent in following years.
War in Ukraine and record-large ag exports to China will drive U.S. net farm income to a record $148.3 billion this year, twice as high as five years ago, said the FAPRI think tank on Monday. Income would decline in 2023 and 2024 as commodity prices soften, and then hold steady through 2027.
Market prices for U.S. corn, soy, wheat and cotton will retreat sharply in the 2023-24 marketing year with normal weather and yields around the world, FAPRI said in an update to its agricultural baseline. However, it expects record wheat and cotton prices in 2022-23.
U.S. food prices will soar by an average of 6.8 percent this year, the highest annual rate since President Reagan's first year in office — and that's assuming price increases slow in coming months, said a University of Missouri think tank on Monday. Sky-high commodity prices are a factor, "but higher labor and energy costs and a range of other factors are much of the story," said the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute.
If farm subsidies were a crop, this year’s payments would fit the hoary rural adage, “big crops get bigger.” USDA supports, already forecast to set a record, could exceed $40 billion this year, thanks to the second round of coronavirus relief now available to farmers and …
The government will send a record $32.8 billion in direct payments to farmers this year but the economic slowdown triggered by the coronavirus still will pull down farm income by 3 percent, said the FAPRI think tank at the University of Missouri on Tuesday. Federal supports would amount to 36 …
Crop and livestock prices could tumble by as much as 12 percent this year due to the coronavirus pandemic, pulling farm income down by $20 billion dollars, said the FAPRI think tank at the University of Missouri on Monday. "A lot of producers already are already in trouble. This is going to make it more severe," said FAPRI director Pat Westhoff. (No paywall)
Higher grain and soybean prices will increase U.S. net farm income modestly this year, said a University of Missouri think tank on Monday. The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute projected a $5.5 billion increase in net farm income, a broad measure of profits, compared to 2018, in line with a USDA estimate of a $6.3 billion increase.
A year after making soybeans the most widely grown crop in the country, U.S. farmers will make corn king again, driven by trade war with China and a burdensome soy stockpile, said the FAPRI think tank at the University of Missouri. "China's tariffs will reduce U.S. soybean exports," said FAPRI. The research group expects farmers will slash soybean plantings by 5.5 percent in 2019 in the face of the lowest market price in 12 years.
U.S. farm income has been in a rut since the collapse of the commodity boom in 2013, and it is likely to grow only slowly after a bump upward in 2019, estimated a University of Missouri think tank.
A University of Missouri think tank says the season-average price for this year's soybean crop, forecast at a record 4.381 billion bushels, will fall to $9.07 a bushel. The 43-cent a bushel drop from the average price paid for the 2016 crop will encourage growers to plant somewhat fewer acres of soybeans and more acres of corn in 2018, says the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute.
After suffering a 31-percent drop in net cash income in three years, the U.S. farm sector will see stable to modestly rising income in coming years, while farmland values will fall 11 percent before leveling off at the end of this decade, says the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute. The University of Missouri think tank says farm debt will rise, as will indicators of financial stress, such as the debt-to-asset ratio.
Corn farmers are within reach of the largest U.S. crop ever grown, topping the 2014 record by more than 200 million bushels, USDA said in its first projections of the fall harvest.
There is almost no risk that the United States will exceed WTO limits on agricultural subsidies with the 2014 farm law, but the picture could be far different if Doha Round proposals are adopted, according to three senior economists.
Farm-gate prices for corn, soybeans and wheat, the three most widely planted crops in the country, "have declined sharply from record levels set in recent years and no quick price recovery is expected," says the University of Missouri think tank FAPRI in an update of its agricultural baseline.
Told to choose between traditional subsidies and a new-era revenue subsidy, corn and soybean farmers overwhelming opted for the revenue plan, the government announced. Growers were expected to choose the Agriculture Risk Coverage plan, analysts said, because it will provide larger payments than traditional subsidies triggered by low prices over the life of the 2014 farm law.
U.S. grain, cotton and soybean farmers will collect an average of $11.2 billion a year in crop subsidies and crop insurance benefits under the 2014 farm law, down by nearly 1 percent from the average of the preceding decade, says a University of Missouri think tank.