Donald Trump

One in seven of the farmers who voted for President Trump in 2016 would not vote for him today, according to a poll released on Monday. The escalating trade war was leading cause of erosion of support for Trump among a staunchly Republican group. But a majority still support him: 60 percent would vote for him now vs. 75 percent in 2016.

The Trump administration said on Tuesday that it will spend up to $12 billion on a one-time aid package to offset the impact of the tit-for-tat tariff war on the farm sector. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue described the move as a “short-term solution” that would give the president time to rebalance trade rules worldwide. Farm groups said they would prefer to see an end to the trade war.

With a visit to corn-and-pork-producing Iowa on Thursday, President Trump will have a chance to speak directly to farmers, a loyal block of supporters who have grown increasingly worried about the impact of Trump tariffs on their wallets. Farm groups have suggested repeatedly the administration find alternatives to tariffs for settling trade disputes but they have been willing to give the president time to show results.

For Iowa farmer John Heisdorffer, the math is brutal in the U.S.-China tariff war: "You tax soybeans at 25 percent and you have serious damage to U.S. farmers." China, the No. 1 customer for U.S. farm exports, canceled purchases of nearly $140 million worth of U.S. soybeans just before the two countries imposed tit-for-tat tariffs on each other's products. Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst said on Sunday the Trump administration was working on "a number of new free-trade agreements," but China "will be a much longer haul."

President Trump told American farmers on Monday, "By the time I finish trade talks," China, Canada and Mexico, the three largest customers for U.S. farm exports, will remove trade barriers to American products. The president issued the assurances on social media after inconclusive talks with China over the weekend and three days after he said he was open to separate trade deals with Mexico and Canada instead of an updated NAFTA.

President Trump is aiming remarkably high with his goal, relayed by Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue, of a $25 billion increase farm sales to China, already the largest customer for U.S. ag exports. Not only is $25 billion more than double what China is expected to purchase this year, it is equal to 18 percent  of the forecast for total U.S. farm exports this year.

While U.S. and Chinese officials publicly set a goal of “meaningful increases” in farm exports, President Trump wants to more than double U.S. sales to China in the near term, said Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue on Wednesday.

Just as President Trump expressed his campaign through the slogan "Make America Great Again," a bill filed by two members of the House Freedom Caucus can be summarized as "Make the farm bill Trump again." South Carolina Rep. Ralph Norman intends to offer the legislation, which would enact crop insurance and farm subsidy reforms espoused by Trump, as an amendment during House debate of the farm bill, which could occur as early as mid-May.

President Trump sent a message to U.S. farmers in a phone call with Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue: “We’re not going to allow them to be casualties if this trade dispute escalates. We’re going to take care of our American farmers.”

Hog farmers are headed for a money-losing year and a major factor will be the drying up of $1 billion a year in exports to China, says Purdue economist Chris Hurt. But Chinese consumers will feel little pain from the 25 percent tariff on U.S. pork because the EU and Canada are alternative suppliers. China acted sooner than expected with its weekend announcement of $3 billion of counter-measures on U.S. goods in response to President Trump's tariffs on imported steel and aluminum.

Five corn-state senators want to meet President Trump face to face to warn him against the oil industry's proposal of a cap on the price of RINs, the credits that refiners must buy if they don't blend enough ethanol into gasoline. Oil-state senators, led by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, say the cap is needed to preserve jobs at oil refineries; midwesterners say it would destroy the market for corn ethanol.