crop prices
Income weak, producers borrow more from ag banks
Farmers typically try to stretch their dollars during the summer in the expectation that payday will arrive with the fall harvest. Not this year. Ag bankers report the largest summertime increase in non-real-estate loan volume in 16 years and it was driven primarily by demand for operating loans to pay day-to-day expenses, said a quarterly Federal Reserve report.
FAO food index at lowest level this year
Sharp declines in the dairy and sugar prices, dropping by 6 percent or more in a month, pulled down the monthly Food Price Index to its lowest level this year, said the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. The index, which measures international prices for a basket of commodities, had been rising steadily until June.
Farm sector frets as tariffs hit export customers
Farm country is worrying and waiting for the next shoe to drop in Trump administration trade disputes with leading ag export markets, including China, Canada, Mexico, and the European Union. A Purdue University poll of producers found a “tremendous amount of uncertainty about future conditions.”
In a surprise, farmers to cut corn and soy plantings by 2 percent
U.S. farmers intend to sow 3 million fewer acres of corn and soybeans this year than in 2017, said the USDA. The surprising development could draw down overly abundant U.S. stockpiles and bolster weak commodity prices.
Think tank forecasts sluggish farm income, continued stress
U.S. farm income has been in a rut since the collapse of the commodity boom in 2013, and it is likely to grow only slowly after a bump upward in 2019, estimated a University of Missouri think tank.
Corn vs. soybean race for U.S. dominance could be a squeaker
The contest between corn, the longtime leader, and soybeans to be the most widely planted U.S. crop may be closer than initially thought, said USDA chief economist Robert Johansson, speaking at the agency’s annual Ag Outlook Forum.
U.S. farm income ‘flattening’ at pre-boom level
During the seven-year commodity boom that ended in 2013, U.S. farm income soared to record highs. Then commodity prices collapsed, and farm income plunged 50 percent in three years. It now appears to be bottoming out at rates seen a decade ago.
NAFTA talks could spill into 2019; ag is a key issue
Negotiations over the new NAFTA could run far beyond the March 31 deadline, and perhaps into 2019, said the Washington Post, citing "industry leaders and others close to the negotiations," including the head of Farmers for Free Trade. The U.S. farm and agribusiness sector is pressing loudly for a new pact and against President Trump's threat to withdraw from the treaty.
‘Trump bump’ melts as farmer optimism wanes
Farmers are increasingly pessimistic about financial conditions in coming months, with Purdue’s Ag Economy Barometer dropping by nearly 18 percent since last January.
Outlook for U.S. farm income: Stable but ‘at much lower levels’
After a three-year plunge, U.S. farm income is stabilizing “at much lower levels than in previous years,” said the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, warning that “growing inventories and trade uncertainty remain the key risks to the outlook.”
Will commodity prices go up or down in 2018? Yes, say analysts.
Goldman Sachs said agricultural commodity prices are on course for a fourth year of decline, with corn prices at the end of 2018 running 33 cents a bushel below the current futures price for December 2018 delivery, said Agrimoney.
Purdue poll finds few farmers expect higher commodity prices
The great majority of corn, soybean, wheat, and cotton growers expect commodity prices to muddle along at current levels through next fall, says a monthly Purdue poll. Only 20 to 25 percent of row-crop farmers expect higher prices in the next 12 months.
Three USDA reports this week will frame the ag sector outlook
In back-to-back-to-back reports, USDA economists will paint a numerical picture of the U.S. farm sector this week, with estimates of farm income, ag exports, and the output, demand and prices for 2018 crops. Most likely, they will add up to large crops, comparatively low grain prices and constrained income heading into the fifth year since the collapse of the commodity boom.
Farmers lean toward more corn and wheat, less soy in 2018
After setting back-to-back records for soybean plantings, U.S. farmers indicated in a survey that they will plant more wheat and corn while cutting back on soybeans in 2018, said Farm Futures. Soybeans nearly matched corn, the most widely grown crop in the nation, in acreage this year with farmers believing the oilseed would be more profitable than corn.
U.S. cropland prices stable for fourth year amid ag sector slump
Farm income plummeted with the collapse of the commodity boom in 2013 yet cropland, usually a farmer's biggest asset and the foundation of a farm's financial health, is as valuable as ever, the USDA says. Producers are making enough money to pay their mortgages, aided in part by low interest rates on the loans, while the perennial hunger among farmers, ranchers and investors to buy land is bolstering prices on the national level, although the Midwest and northern Plains feel the pain of lower commodity prices.
After a respite, world food prices are on par with February 2015
The FAO Food Price Index, based on prices of five groups of commodities - meat, dairy, grains, sugar and vegetable oil - has been on an upward trajectory since the start of 2016. Pushed by higher wheat and dairy prices, the index now has a reading of 175.2, the second time this year that it is on par with prices in February 2015, said the UN agency.
High prices encourage larger world cotton crop
Cotton production is forecast to grow by 5 percent worldwide this year, the second expansion in two years due to market prices that are far above average, said the International Cotton Advisory Committee. In a monthly update, the intergovernmental body estimated the 2017/18 crop at 24.01 million tonnes, up by 1.1 million tonnes from the 2016/17 crop.
U.S farm income drops 46 percent in three years
The collapse in crop and livestock prices since 2013 will result in the lowest net farm income since 2009, says USDA. In the final estimate of the year, the Economic Research Service pegged farm income at $66.9 billion, down $4.5 billion from its August estimate and barely more than half of the record income that producers enjoyed just three years ago.
Farmer income declines, but land prices rise in Plains
The decline in farm income in the central Plains intensified as crop prices remained weak this summer, according to 135 ag bankers who took part in a quarterly survey by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank. Six out of every 10 of the bankers said farm income during the third quarter was lower than a year earlier; only one in 10 reported an increase.