corn prices

Global food prices skyrocketed following the Russian invasion of Ukraine last February, but they have returned to earth, said the FAO Food Price Index, based on monthly changes in a basket of food commodities.

With the fall harvest getting under way, traders expect the USDA to trim its estimate of the U.S. corn crop by more than a quarter-billion bushels on Monday but to stick to its forecast of the largest soybean crop ever, at roughly 4.5 billion bushels. Dry weather in the western Corn Belt, including powerhouses Iowa and Nebraska, will lower corn production to just below 14.1 billion bushels, or 1 billion bushels less than last year, according to the average estimate from traders surveyed by wire services.

Verbio North America says it will more than double the capacity of its plant in central Iowa to produce renewable natural gas from corn stover, and it plans to begin production of corn ethanol in the final months of the year. The facility was the first of three plants in the nation to return to biofuel production after faltering as a producer of cellulosic ethanol, made from grasses, woody plants and crop residue.

With an eye toward shoring up Farm Belt support less than two months before the election, President Trump directed the EPA to deny dozens of oil refiner requests for retroactive waivers from U.S. biofuel laws, Reuters reported on Wednesday.

This year's corn crop could sell for the lowest price in years — probably around $3.10 a bushel — depending on how quickly demand for ethanol rebounds and whether or not farmers plant less corn land than they planned to in March, said an economist at Kansas State University. (No paywall)

Farmers growing the three major U.S. crops — corn, soybeans and wheat — can expect a sizable decline in the average sales price for this year's harvest instead of the mild upturn that was forecast in late February, said the USDA. In its first projection of the fall harvest, the USDA said season-average prices for the three crops would be 8 to 10 percent lower than anticipated at its Outlook Forum.

With commodity prices in a trough since 2013, U.S. farmers have tried to bolster their income by diversifying their crops, such as planting white corn, the variety used in corn chips and tortillas. That decision is now coming back to bite them because overproduction is driving down the price of white corn.

U.S. grain bins hold the largest stockpile of corn in three decades — 32-percent larger than a year ago — and there will be little chance to reduce it given that a bumper crop is being harvested this fall. The outlook suggests comparatively low market prices through late 2018 at a minimum, possibly adding to pressure for larger federal supports as Congress writes the new farm bill.

In Kansas City, a class-action lawsuit says Syngenta should be held liable for corn shipments rejected by China early this decade. And in Elk Point, South Dakota, Beef Products Inc. (BPI) is seeking billions of dollars in damages from American Broadcasting Companies Inc. (ABC) for reporting that used the name "pink slime" to refer to BPI's "lean finely textured beef."

Purdue’s monthly survey of producers reported a small uptick in farmer confidence with the arrival of the spring planting season despite an undercurrent of pessimism about what corn and soybean prices will be at harvest time.

For the past 27 months, farmers have been paid less than $4 a bushel for their corn crops, "and prices below $4 are expected to persist well into 2017," says economist Darrel Good of the University of Illinois. There are only two paths that could lead to higher prices, he says at farmdoc Daily: a drop-off in South America or a much smaller U.S. crop in the new year.

The global grain glut and weaker demand from China will keep grain prices low into next year, according to analysts at Olam International, one of the world's largest commodities traders, reports Bloomberg.