corn prices

China will remain the leading importer of soybeans and cotton, but Mexico will be the world's largest corn importer for the rest of this decade, said the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute. The United States would be the top corn exporter despite increased competition from Brazil, said the University of Missouri think tank in updating its international marketing baseline.

Growers are planting more corn than expected this year and the result could be the second harvest in a row to exceed 15 billion bushels, according to a USDA survey of growers and projected yields per acre. The mammoth crop, only slightly smaller than the record set last year, could drive down farmgate prices for corn.

The continued decline in season-average corn and soybean prices since the peaks of 2022 will pinch farmer returns from the crops for the second year in a row, said three analysts writing at the farmdoc daily blog. They estimated that operator and land returns would fall below $300 an acre, levels last seen from 2014 to 2019.

Manufacturers of heavy-duty trucks and buses will be required to produce vehicles that reduce greenhouse gas emissions by as much as 60 percent by model year 2032 under a new EPA regulation. The agency said a variety of technologies can be used by truck makers to meet the tailpipe emissions target, from cleaner-burning internal combustion engines to hybrids, electric vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cells.

Mexico might review, and potentially remove, its ban on imports of genetically modified white corn following its presidential election on June 2, said Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack on Sunday. "That would be my hope," said Vilsack. The new president, likely to be a woman for the first time, would take office on Oct. 1.

U.S. corn stocks will be relatively abundant in the near term, never dropping below 2 billion bushels at their lowest point, according to forecasters. Ordinarily, large supplies mean low prices, but two agricultural economists say a season-average price of $4.80 a bushel could be the new normal for corn.

Global food prices skyrocketed following the Russian invasion of Ukraine last February, but they have returned to earth, said the FAO Food Price Index, based on monthly changes in a basket of food commodities.

With the fall harvest getting under way, traders expect the USDA to trim its estimate of the U.S. corn crop by more than a quarter-billion bushels on Monday but to stick to its forecast of the largest soybean crop ever, at roughly 4.5 billion bushels. Dry weather in the western Corn Belt, including powerhouses Iowa and Nebraska, will lower corn production to just below 14.1 billion bushels, or 1 billion bushels less than last year, according to the average estimate from traders surveyed by wire services.

Verbio North America says it will more than double the capacity of its plant in central Iowa to produce renewable natural gas from corn stover, and it plans to begin production of corn ethanol in the final months of the year. The facility was the first of three plants in the nation to return to biofuel production after faltering as a producer of cellulosic ethanol, made from grasses, woody plants and crop residue.

With an eye toward shoring up Farm Belt support less than two months before the election, President Trump directed the EPA to deny dozens of oil refiner requests for retroactive waivers from U.S. biofuel laws, Reuters reported on Wednesday.

This year's corn crop could sell for the lowest price in years — probably around $3.10 a bushel — depending on how quickly demand for ethanol rebounds and whether or not farmers plant less corn land than they planned to in March, said an economist at Kansas State University. (No paywall)

Farmers growing the three major U.S. crops — corn, soybeans and wheat — can expect a sizable decline in the average sales price for this year's harvest instead of the mild upturn that was forecast in late February, said the USDA. In its first projection of the fall harvest, the USDA said season-average prices for the three crops would be 8 to 10 percent lower than anticipated at its Outlook Forum.

With commodity prices in a trough since 2013, U.S. farmers have tried to bolster their income by diversifying their crops, such as planting white corn, the variety used in corn chips and tortillas. That decision is now coming back to bite them because overproduction is driving down the price of white corn.

U.S. grain bins hold the largest stockpile of corn in three decades — 32-percent larger than a year ago — and there will be little chance to reduce it given that a bumper crop is being harvested this fall. The outlook suggests comparatively low market prices through late 2018 at a minimum, possibly adding to pressure for larger federal supports as Congress writes the new farm bill.