American farmers will harvest monster corn and soybean crops this year, including the largest soybean crop ever, at 4.5 billion bushels, and the third corn crop in four years to top 15 billion bushels, projected the Agriculture Department on Thursday. Season-average prices for the crops would fall for the second year in a row from the spike in commodity markets created by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
U.S. farm income will tumble for the second year in a row from the record set in 2022, pulled down by lower commodity prices and rising production costs, forecast the Agriculture Department on Wednesday. Net farm income would fall 25 percent, to $116.1 billion, but still run 15 percent ahead of its 10-year average.
For the past year, the top concern, by far, of U.S. farmers polled by Purdue University has been higher input costs. Now, it's a tie between lower commodity prices and higher input costs at 28 percent each, said the monthly Ag Economy Barometer on Tuesday.
For the first time since 2001, interest rates are rising faster than farmland values, creating a potential obstacle to land purchasers, said assistant economist Ty Kreitman of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank. “With interest costs now above average land value appreciation, farm operating profits will determine the magnitude of returns for financed land,” he said.
Compared to food price inflation of 11 percent in 2022, grocery price increases will be virtually nonexistent this year, said a Wells Fargo analyst Wednesday during a panel discussion on the 2024 outlook for the food and ag sector. A Rabobank analyst said that softer commodity prices would take the steam out of the hot farmland market.
Corn and soybean growers will operate in "a much tighter margin environment" this year than in recent years because of lower market prices for the crops, said two University of Illinois agricultural economists on Tuesday. They cited fertilizer and land rents as potential areas for cost cutting.
U.S. net farm income will be a stronger-than-expected $151 billion this year, the second-highest total on record, estimated the Agriculture Department on Thursday. That’s roughly $10 billion higher than the August forecast and due chiefly to cost cutting by producers, aided by lower fertilizer, fuel, and feed prices.
Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said he’s certain Congress will meet the Dec. 31 deadline to pass the farm bill or temporarily revive its predecessor, but it will require a dose of creativity to do it. Lawmakers have been deadlocked for weeks over farm group demands for a larger safety net when there are few ways to pay for it.
Almost every farm in the country will benefit from a more generous trigger for crop subsidy payments in the years ahead if Congress does nothing more than extend the current farm law, said associate professor Jonathan Coppess of the University of Illinois on Thursday.
The season-average prices for most U.S. agricultural commodities are on a decline that could persist into 2026, said a report from the FAPRI think tank at the University of Missouri. Global economic growth has slowed after a heady recovery from the pandemic in 2021, and world grain production is up this year, creating more competition for U.S. crops.
The cost of price supports for dairy, and for an array of field crops, could skyrocket if Congress allows the 2018 farm law to expire without a replacement, estimated the Congressional Research Service.
The farm-gate value of U.S. corn and soybeans, the two most widely grown crops in the country, will fall 16 percent compared to last year's harvests due to a steep drop in commodity prices, according to USDA data. The season-average price for corn was forecast to be $1.70 a bushel below the near-record prices paid for the 2022 crop, and soybeans were expected to be $1.50 a bushel below last year's price.
The FAO index of global commodity prices rose 1.3 percent during July, its second increase since April, reflecting the termination of the Black Sea grain initiative and India's restrictions on rice exports. The increases punctuated a longer-term decline in commodity prices in the past year.
Higher enrollment in SNAP and lower commodity prices will boost the 10-year baseline for the farm bill to $1.48 trillion, the most expensive ever, said the Congressional Budget Office in an updated projection of federal spending. The baseline sets the limit for spending in the new farm bill. …
American farmers will plant 7.6 million more acres of corn, soybeans and wheat, the "big three" crops of modern U.S. agriculture, this year than last, according to USDA estimates. With normal weather and trend-line yields, the result could be the largest soybean crop ever and the biggest corn crop since record production in 2016.
After two record-setting years in a row, U.S. net farm income will decline sharply in the near term, pulled down by lower crop and livestock prices, though it will remain well above its 10-year average, said FAPRI on Wednesday. The University of Missouri think tank said food inflation would drop to 4.4 percent this year — less than half of last year’s rate — and run at 2 percent in following years.
High commodity prices supported "profit opportunities for many producers across the farm sector" ahead of the spring planting season, although there were concerns about operating expenses, higher interest rates and drought, said the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank.
Battered by drought and rising costs, U.S. cotton growers will devote more of their land to corn, wheat and soybeans — crops that promise higher revenue this year — while sharply reducing their cotton plantings, said a survey released on Sunday. The National Cotton Council said its survey of growers indicated 11.4 million acres will be planted to cotton this spring, 17 percent less than last year.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine drove food prices to record levels during 2022 and the Food Price Index remains elevated after a nine-month decline, said the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.