The world nearly met its goal of halving hunger by 2015, but will miss its ambitious new goal of eradicating hunger by 2030 without decisive action to raise incomes, expand food production and alleviate income inequality, says a joint report of the OECD and FAO. The new edition of their Agricultural Outlook says the number of undernourished people in the world will drop to 636 million in 2025, compared to 799 million now.
The global “prevalence of undernourishment,” currently 11 percent, would drop to 8 percent over the coming decade, “with Latin America as a whole dipping below the 5-percent threshold at which FAO considers hunger to be effectively eradicated,” says the Outlook. In Asia, Indonesia and Thailand also would drop below the 5-percent threshold. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, the rate in 2025 would be 19 percent, compared to 23 percent now.
“But because of rapid population growth, the region would still account for a rising share of the world’s population suffering from hunger,” said FAO. In its executive summary, the Outlook said, “[I]n 10 years, the region will account for more than one-third of the global total of under-nourished, compared to just over a quarter today.” Some 950 million people, 12 percent of the world population, live in sub-Saharan Africa.
Referring to the global outlook, the executive summary said, “Many countries will be confronted with a complex burden of undernourishment [too few calories], obesity, and micronutrient deficiency [with unbalanced diets a common problem]. In both developed and developing countries, consumption of sugar, oils and fats is projected to increase faster than consumption of staples and protein, largely as a result of people consuming more processed food products.”
Overall, the Outlook foresees stable commodity prices over the coming decade and rising prices for livestock due to higher incomes, which allow richer diets. The increased demand for meat, fish and poultry will bring larger demand for grains. About 80 percent of increased crop production will come through higher yields, rather than expansion of cultivated area.
“If historical variations” in oil prices, yields and economic growth “continue, then there is a strong chance of at least one severe price swing within the next 10 years,” said OECD and FAO. “Such wide inter-annual prices movements can mask long-term trends. Climate change may add to this uncertainty, especially if the occurrence of extreme weather events intensifies.”