Adverse weather in South America – harvest-time rain in Argentina and drought in Brazil – will reduce the global soybean crop by 1.5 percent in the current crop year, says the International Grains Council. In its monthly Grain Market Report, the IGC estimated the 2015/16 soybean crop at 318 million tonnes, slightly lower than the record 320 million tonnes of the preceding year. The outlook for the new crop is highly tentative so early in the 2016/17 growing season. “But with output projected to be broadly unchanged year-on-year as consumption rises further, global carryovers could contract by 16 percent, to 32 million tonnes, the smallest in three years,” said IGC.
Besides soybeans, the bad weather in South America has created uncertainties about wheat and feed grain supplies. “Nevertheless, the (2015/16) season is still forecast to end with another significant stocks increase, adding to the safety net against any unforeseen crop problems in 2016/17,” said IGC. “In spite of strong demand, a further build-up of grains carryover stocks is envisaged at the end of 2016/17 … China’s could exceed 200 million tonnes for the first time since 1999/2000.”