The world is facing a 70-percent “crop gap” between the calories available in 2006 and the expected caloric demand in 2050, says a report out by the World Resources Institute (WRI). Dovetailing on earlier projections by the United Nations, the WRI report blames population growth and changing diets—specifically more meat and dairy consumption—for the dramatic discrepancy.
And it won’t be enough to simply boost yields going forward. Crops would have to grow one-third more quickly than they did during the Green Revolution in order to feed the 10 billion people expected on the planet by the middle of the century.
“The average American can cut their protein consumption in half and still exceed the daily USDA recommendation,” says WRI. And around the world, animal-based protein consumption is projected to jump 80 percent between 2006 and 2050. But rather than suggest that the planet go vegetarian, which the organization admits is unrealistic, the report encourages people to make dietary “shifts” toward more sustainable eating, which it says could cut the food gap to 50 percent.
In practice, this would mean: 1) Lowering overall calorie consumption (“Globally, there are more than two and a half times the number of overweight people than undernourished people,” says WRI); 2) Reducing animal-based protein intake; and 3) Specifically cutting back on beef (“When accounting for pasture and crop inputs, only 1 percent of gross cattle feed calories and 4 percent of ingested protein are converted to human-edible calories and protein, respectively,” says WRI).
Retailers and food-service leaders can use WRI’s “Shift Wheel” for ideas on how to encourage customers to adopt more sustainable eating habits, like “disguise[ing] the change” to store product lines or “mak[ing] it socially more desirable” to eat lower on the food chain.