The global stockpile of coffee is headed for a five-year low, at less than a three-month supply, thanks to record demand that has driven up coffee prices 31 percent since the start of the year, says a semi-annual USDA forecast. “Global consumption is forecast at a record 153.3 million bags,” each weighing 60 kg, says USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service.
The global stockpile is forecast to slip to 33.3 million bags at the end of 2016/17, down 10 million bags in two years. The global crop is forecast for 156.6 million bags this season, up 3.7 million bags from 2015/16. Brazil, the No. 1 coffee grower, will harvest a record Arabica crop, more than offsetting smaller production of Robusta beans in Brazil, Vietnam and Indonesia. Arabica beans, the most widely grown variety, are considered more flavorful but contain less caffeine than the more bitter Robusta beans, grown mostly in Asia.
The Arabica crop in Brazil is forecast for 45.6 million bags, up 9.5 million bags from last season, while the Robusta crop declines to a 10-year low of 10.5 million bags. Hot, dry weather weakened yields in Vietnam, the No. 2 grower, which is forecast for 26.7 million bags of coffee. In Colombia, the No. 3 grower, good weather and a replanting program will boost production modestly to 14.5 million bags.