Although the world will harvest the third-largest grain crop ever in 2017/18 — only 4 percent smaller than the record set last season — the global grain inventory will decline for the first time in five years, forecasts the International Grains Council. “Most of the contraction is for maize and is mainly in the United States and China,” said the IGC in its monthly Grain Market Report.
Worldwide wheat, corn, and soybean production is down marginally from the records set in 2016/17 at the same time that global demand is rising, which is expected to draw down grain reserves by 7 percent overall. Corn and soy stocks would decline, but the wheat carry-over is forecast to rise by 4 million tonnes, to a record 248 million tonnes, because the crop is larger than expected in the Black Sea region of Eastern Europe and Western Asia. Russia and Ukraine, two major producers, border the Black Sea, as do Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, and Georgia.
“Grain exports from the Black Sea region could surpass 90 million tonnes for the first time, accounting for one-quarter of world trade, but there is speculation among market participants about possible logistical constraints,” said the IGC, which is based in London.