Global food supplies were put in jeopardy both directly and indirectly by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, said two analysts at the IFPRI think tank on Thursday. The war will constrict grain supplies in the short term, and it would disrupt the flow of fertilizer needed for crop production in many countries.
“This could push up already-high food price inflation, and have serious consequences for low-income net food importing countries, many of which have seen an increase in malnourishment rates over the past few years in the face of pandemic disruptions,” wrote analysts Joe Glauber and David Laborde in an IFPRI blog.
“The global response to the Ukrainian situation should include a strong global food security dimension and ensure that any sanctions placed on Russia not impact third parties reliant on Russian exports,” they wrote. “To the extent possible, food and fertilizer exports should be allowed to continue unimpeded.” Proposals for an emergency expansion of biofuel production “should be viewed with skepticism,” since the fuels rely on food crops as feedstocks.
Russia and Ukraine are among the world’s five largest exporters of wheat, corn, barley, and sunflower seed and oil. Together they provide one of every eight calories on the world market. “North Africa and the Middle East import over 50 percent of their cereal needs and a large share of wheat and barley from Ukraine and Russia,” wrote Glauber and Laborde. “Ukraine is an important supplier of maize for the European Union and China, as well as several North African markets, including Egypt and Libya.”
International sanctions on Russian exports would affect natural gas and fertilizer supplies. “Russia accounts for 15 percent of global trade in nitrogenous fertilizers and 17 percent of global potash fertilizer exports,” said the IFPRI blog. “Belarus, an ally of Russia and staging ground for the current invasion and already being targeted by some international sanctions, accounts for an additional 16 percent of global market share of potash exports.”