Low market prices will reduce cotton planting by 6 percent worldwide and result in the smallest harvest in six years, says the International Cotton Advisory Committee. It pegs the crop at 24.6 million tonnes, “making 2015/16 the first time in five seasons where consumption overtakes production.” The intergovernmental group says an upturn in corn and soybean prices makes those crops more profitable than cotton. A stronger world economy will boost cotton consumption by 2 percent in the 2015/16 marketing year, ICAC projects.
U.S. cotton plantings are likely to shrink by 10 percent, says ICAC, pointing to low market prices and uncertainty about the new STAX subsidy program. It expects a U.S. crop of 3.3 million tonnes, down 7 percent from 2014. India is expected to emerge as the world’s largest grower, at 6.5 million tonnes, for the second year in a row, despite a 5-percent drop in plantings. China, the chief rival to India, is forecast by ICAC for a 10-percent decline in plantings – the fourth consecutive year of decline – resulting in a crop of 5.7 million tonnes, the smallest since 2003. Production in Pakistan is expected to fall by 9 percent, to 2.2 million tonnes, due to a 5-percent drop in plantings.