The global stockpile of grain will swell by 5 percent during 2016/17 because farmers are growing grain faster than the world can consume it, says the International Grains Council. “Grains inventories in the major exporters are predicted to grow to a seven-year high, while those in China could reach 200 million tons for the first time in 17 years,” says the monthly IGC Grain Market Report.
Despite the mammoth crops, world trade in grain is expected to decline modestly from the previous year. “This is linked mainly to measures in China to encourage use of local alternatives in place of imported feed grains, including barley and sorghum,” said the IGC. It estimates China will import 15.7 million tons of grain, including 2 million tons of corn, during 2016/17, down by one-third from 23 million tons during 2015/16.
Chinese grain stocks are forecast to rise by 4 percent, to 199.9 million tons, this marketing year. Stocks have soared in the past three years by nearly 50 million tons. The government has revamped its support policies to encourage farmers to sell on the open market rather than to the government.