The United States could be headed for its smallest corn crop – 13 billion bushels – since the scorching 2012 drought, according to estimates circulated ahead of USDA projections due today at noon ET. One of every six acres intended for corn, or 15.7 million acres, is yet to be planted because of a cold and persistently rainy spring, and yields per acre drop precipitously for late-planted corn.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization pegged the U.S. crop at 330 million tonnes, or 13 billion bushels, in a report last week – “almost 10 percent short of last year’s level.” The FAO pointed to “prolonged excessive wet conditions relating in major delays n crop plantings.” U.S. farmers reaped 14.4 billion bushels of corn last year. With growers planning to plant more land to corn, the USDA projected a harvest of 15 billion bushels a month ago, the second-largest crop ever.
Traders were not as dour as the FAO when polled by Reuters. On average, they expect a crop of 14.25 billion bushels, a drop of 5 percent from the May projection and just below last year’s crop. The lowest estimate among traders was 13.48 billion bushels.
A smaller-than-expected corn crop would drain the more-than-ample U.S. reserves and drive up prices. Growers stymied by soggy fields could switch some of the land to soybeans. The U.S. stockpile of the oilseed is forecast to double, to nearly 1 billion bushels this year because of trade war and a string of bumper crops.