U.S. wheat growers already were on track for one of the smallest crops in years, and bitter cold this week is making the USDA projection look more likely. Weather consultancy Radiant Solutions says widespread winterkill struck winter wheat in the central Plains and southern Corn Belt, where there was too little snow cover to shield the crop from frigid conditions on New Year’s Day.
“Damage occurred in about a quarter of the hard red wheat belt in the central Plains, with about 5 percent of the soft red wheat belt in the Midwest seeing impacts,” said Don Keeney, senior agricultural meteorologist for Radiant. Keeney said sub-zero temperatures later this week in the eastern Midwest would result in additional winterkill.
Winter wheat, which is planted in the fall, lies dormant during the winter, and revives for harvest in late spring, is the dominant type of wheat grown in the United States, accounting for roughly three-fourths of all wheat. Half of the U.S. wheat crop is consumed as food domestically. Abundant stockpiles worldwide will buffer the impact of winter damage to the U.S. crop.
“Damage to U.S. hard red winter wheat will be a concern this week, but the impact on world supply may not be tremendous,” said forecaster World Weather. “Wheat production areas outside the United States are facing no threatening weather.” Futures prices for wheat to be delivered in March rose by 1.7 percent during trading in Chicago on Tuesday.
The USDA has projected that this year will see the smallest all-wheat sowings — 45 million acres — since it began recording that data in 1921. With normal weather and yields, the crop would be 1.8 billion bushels, the second smallest in a decade. The USDA will update its figures at its annual Outlook Forum in late February.
Plants can lose leaves to freeze damage, reducing their chances of survival, but if the “crown” — usually less than two inches below ground — survives, new roots and leaves will grow in the spring as the plant recovers. Snow cover can keep soil temperatures from falling low enough to damage the crown. The University of Saskatchewan says first impressions of winterkill losses can be misleading. Prolonged cold spells increase the chance of damage, but spring weather “can have a large influence on the ability of a damaged wheat stand to recover.”
Risk consultant Mike O’Dea said the extent of damage to the wheat crop from this week’s Arctic weather won’t be clear until plants break dormancy in the spring, reported Bloomberg.