The weather-damaged winter wheat crop will be the smallest in eight years, if a survey of analysts ahead of USDA’s crop report proves correct. The report, due for release Friday at noon ET, is the first field-based USDA estimate of the winter wheat crop. An accompanying report will project the fall harvest for corn, soybean, cotton and rice as well as overall U.S. wheat output. The reports may set the tone at futures markets for months to come.
In a survey, analysts on average expected a winter wheat crop of 1.47 billion bushels. That would be the smallest since 1.29 billion bushels in 2006 and second-smallest since 2002 according to USDA records. Drought and winterkill have put the crop in Kansas and Oklahoma, two leading states, in poor shape. The annual wheat tour put Kansas’ crop at 261 million bushels, smallest since 1996.
Hard red winter wheat, grown in the Plains, is used for bread and all-purpose flour.
Farmers could be headed for a record-large soybean crop and a mammoth corn harvest, based on a March survey by USDA of planting intentions and USDA’s projected yields. Michael Cordonnier, a widely followed analyst, says at Agrimoney that corn and soybean plantings each are likely to be 1 million acres larger than USDA’s estimated 91.7 million acres of corn and 81.5 million acres of soybeans.