Soybeans are the largest U.S. farm export to China, and growers of the oilseed may be in line for huge federal payments, worth an average of $85 an acre, to offset the impact of retaliatory Chinese tariffs. Corn growers, meanwhile, might not get enough per acre to buy a cup of coffee at many restaurants. At the payment rates reported by Agri-Pulse, soybean growers would receive roughly $6 of every $10 in aid outlined by Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue four weeks ago.
There would be relatively little left of the $12-billion bailout for other producers if soybean growers get the projected $7.5 billion. The head of the Western Growers Association said the USDA would use $2.5 billion to buy, and then give away, surplus foods. About $200 million will be used to develop new markets for U.S. ag exports, Perdue said in a July interview.
The USDA said it “will not confirm” the report that soybean growers would be paid $1.65 a bushel and corn growers 1 cent a bushel, or that details of the assistance plan would be unveiled as soon as Friday. “Further, it may do a disservice to stakeholders to supply them with information that is not in its final form.” The USDA proposal for cash payments to producers was under White House review on Wednesday.
“Can you hear the whirring of helicopters full of cash warming up? Flights to the Midwest on deck with heavy loads of cash for soybean and corn farmers,” tweeted economist Scott Irwin of the University of Illinois. “If this report is true, it completely changes the income outlook for midwestern corn and soybean farmers for 2018/19. Could be over $100/acre for many Illinois soybean farmers. Pennies — literally — for corn acres.” Early this month, one of Irwin’s colleagues, writing on the farmdoc Daily blog, projected modest losses per acre on corn and soybeans this year, based on current land rental rates.
Economist Dave Widmar said on social media that if there are high payment rates, “payment caps could become an issue.” And Irwin said the USDA might include language to reduce payments if there is a speedy settlement of the Sino-U.S. trade war.