Will record crops be bigger than expected? | Food and Environment Reporting Network

Private consultants expect the U.S. corn and soybean crops will be larger than estimated by the government. USDA will update its forecasts on Sept 11. Three consultancies – INTL FCStone, Lanworth and Allendale – release assessments this week. Lanworth was the only one to lower its estimate of the corn crop, to 14.646 billion bushels, but that is higher than the other two forecasts and 4 percent larger than USDA’s estimate of 14.032 billion bushels based on Aug 1 conditions, said AgriMoney.

Lanworth said it lowered its expected yield in the western Corn Belt due to dryness while corn yields east of the Mississippi River could be 8-16 percent above normal due to balmy conditions.

USDA tends to slightly under-estimate soybean yields in its harvest-time crop reports compared to the final figure for the crop, say economists Scott Irwin, Darrel Good and Dwight Sanders in a blog at farmdoc daily. As a result, they say “it will come as no surprise if the USDA’s August forecast of 45.4 bushels per acre increases in upcoming reports.”

The corn harvest is under way in scattered spots. An Associated Press story says 7 percent of the Kansas crop, mostly in the southeastern corner, already is in the bin. For some growers, high corn yields will compensate for drought damage to winter wheat.