U.S. wheat exports are forecast for 900 million bushels this year, “up significantly from the previous year’s depressed total,” says USDA’s monthly WASDE report. The United States would rank third among the wheat-exporting nations of the world, trailing the EU and Russia, and a step ahead of last year’s fourth-place finish.
Exports would increase at the same time the season-average price for wheat falls for the fourth year in a row, forecast for $4 a bushel for this year’s crop, the lowest farm-gate price in 11 years. At 900 million bushels, exports would be up 16 percent from the 2015/16 marketing-year total “but still below the five-year average” of 972 million bushels, said USDA. For decades, the United States led the world in wheat exports but was nosed aside by the EU three years ago.
Thanks to excellent spring weather in the Plains, the winter wheat crop is forecast 10-percent larger than last year despite an 8-percent reduction in plantings. With the larger crop, USDA forecasts the U.S. wheat surplus will climb to more than 1 billion bushels, equal to a six-month supply.
At the same time wheat supplies are growing, USDA says U.S. corn and soybean inventories, swollen by three bumper crops in a row, are beginning to subside. Soybean prices would rise for the first time since commodity prices collapsed in 2013. Soybean exports are forecast for a record 1.9 billion bushels, due in part to hot and dry weather that damaged Brazil’s soy crop. Brazil is second to the United States as soybean producer but is No. 1 in exports.
The outlook is similar in corn — a downturn in Brazil will open the way for larger U.S. corn exports and for higher U.S. corn prices, although still at depressed levels. The season-average corn price of $3.50 a bushel would be the lowest in six years.
In its World Agricultural Production report, the USDA said dry weather has reduced the outlook for the so-called second crop throughout Brazil and especially in the Central West region, one of the largest farming areas. in the state of Goias, late-planted fields suffered the most, “with many fields likely to be abandoned,” said the report