The wheat harvest in the northern Plains and Pacific Northwest will be 40 percent smaller than last year due to severe drought, said the USDA on Monday. The declines in durum and spring wheat were so great they would reduce overall U.S. wheat production, dominated by winter wheat, by 8 percent from the previous forecast.
In its monthly crop report, the USDA said durum wheat, used in pasta, would total 37 million bushels this year, compared to 69 million bushels last year. Spring wheat, used in bread, cakes and rolls, was estimated at 345 million bushels, down from 586 million bushels in 2020.
“The production forecast for durum and other spring wheat indicated a significant decline compared to last year for these two classes due to the severe drought conditions affecting the northern Plains,” said the companion WASDE report. Production in Idaho and Washington state, also affected by an arid growing season, also would plummet, said the crop report.
The durum crop would be the smallest since 21 million bushels in 1961 and spring wheat would be the smallest since 206 million bushels in 1988, also a drought year, according to USDA data.
Only 16 percent of the spring wheat crop was rated as good or excellent while 55 percent are listed in poor or very poor condition, said the weekly Crop Progress report, released on Monday.
U.S. growers are forecast to reap 1.746 billion bushels of wheat this year, including 1.364 billion bushels of winter wheat, grown mostly in the central and southern Plains. The USDA raised its estimate of the winter wheat crop this month by 4 percent from the June forecast but the dour prospects for spring-planted wheat outweighed the increase.