U.S. farmers will pare corn plantings by 1.5 percent and modestly increase soybean acreage this spring in the face of high input costs, projected the USDA on Thursday. High yields would bring the largest corn and soybean crops ever in America and pull down season-average prices for the two most widely planted U.S. crops.
On the opening day of its Agricultural Outlook Forum, the USDA said corn plantings would total 92 million acres, down by 1.4 million acres from 2020, and soybean plantings would reach 88 million acres, an increase of 800,000 acres. With normal weather, the corn crop, at 181 bushels an acre, would be a record 15.24 billion bushels. The soybean crop, with yields of 51.5 bushels an acre, would be a record 4.49 billion bushels.
The projections were drafted before Russia invaded Ukraine. “We have an unknown impact of conditions going on in Eastern Europe right now,” said USDA chief economist Seth Meyer.
“Shifts in relative prices and higher input costs support a year-to-year decrease in corn plantings, although the decline is moderated by the highest projected corn price for crop insurance purposes in over a decade,” said USDA analysts. “Soybean area is forecast to increase as strong U.S. crush demand and the current drought in South America has resulted in very favorable new-crop pricing opportunities for producers. In addition, soybean plantings are expected to benefit as farmers focus on managing high production costs.”
Farm gate prices were projected at $5 a bushel for this year’s corn crop and at $12.75 a bushel for soybeans. The corn price would be 45 cents lower and soybeans 25 cents lower than the season-average price for 2021 crops.
Rising demand for biofuel feedstocks is driving up soy oil prices and will boost soybean crushings to a record 2.25 billion bushels for the 2022 crop. The USDA estimated that 12 billion pounds of soy oil — 46 percent of 2022/23 production — would be used in biofuels. That compares with 11 billion pounds this marketing year and 8.85 billion pounds in 2020/21.
Wheat production was projected at 1.94 billion bushels, up 18 percent from last year but still below the five-year average. The season-average price was projected at $6.80 a bushel, down by 50 cents from the 2021/22 average. The USDA pegged all wheat plantings at 48 million acres, up from 46.7 million acres last year.
The USDA said cotton production would rise by 2 percent this year, to 18.2 million bales.
Red meat and poultry production was forecast to decline slightly, to 106.6 billion pounds this year, the first decrease since 2014.
The USDA outlook for grains and oilseeds is available here.
The USDA outlook for cotton is available here.
The USDA outlook for livestock and poultry is available here.
The USDA outlook for dairy is available here.
The USDA outlook for sugar is available here.