Bird flu outbreaks are driving up egg and poultry meat prices far faster than usual, with eggs expected to cost 20 percent more and poultry 9 percent more this year than their 2021 averages, said the Agriculture Department on Wednesday. USDA economists raised their forecasts of food inflation for the fourth month in a row, to the highest rate since the end of the Carter presidency.
“An ongoing outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza has reduced the U.S. egg-layer flock and drove a 10.3 percent increase in retail egg prices in April,” said the USDA in its monthly Food Price Outlook. “Retail poultry prices have been high, with historically low stocks of frozen chicken (also called ‘cold storage’). The ongoing highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak has also contributed to increasing poultry prices as over 38 million birds have been affected.”
The USDA forecast an annual food inflation rate of 7 percent, which would be the highest since the 9.8 percent rate in 1981, the year President Reagan took office. The USDA’s predicted grocery inflation rate of 7.5 percent would be the highest since 8.1 percent in 1980, the last year of the Carter era.
Food inflation was broad-based, said the USDA, so increases in the overall inflation rates “were driven by increases for many products.” A month ago, it forecast that all-food and grocery prices would rise an average of 5.5 percent this year.
The USDA forecast that prices for fats and oils would rise by an average of 10.5 percent this year, compared to the usual 2.3 percent. The predicted 9 percent increase in poultry prices is nearly four times the usual rate. A 7 percent increase was forecast for the category of beef, pork, poultry, and other meats, more than double the long-term average of 3.2 percent a year.
Fruit and vegetable prices were also forecast for a 7 percent annual increase, compared to the usual 2 percent. Cereal and bakery products, with a long-term average annual increase of 2.1 percent, were forecast to rise 7.5 percent this year.