Corn production will surge by a hefty 5 percent worldwide, pushing global grain production to within shouting distance of the record set two years ago, said the International Grains Council. Bigger-than-expected wheat and corn crops in the United States will be a factor in the near-record harvest and an expansion in the season-ending “carry over” stocks for the fourth year in a row.
“Wheat harvests are significantly exceeding expectations in the United States and CIS (former Soviet Union) but results have been poorer than expected in the parts of the EU, particularly in France,” said the IGC’s monthly Grain Market Report. “After last year’s decline, a solid rebound in global maize (corn) output is anticipated, with most of the gain in the major exporters.”
Overall, IGC raised its forecast of the global grain harvest by 20 million tonnes from its June estimate; 6 million tonnes in wheat and 14 million in corn. The United States played a large role in each. IGC boosted its estimate of U.S. wheat by 5 million tonnes and corn by 10 million tonnes. Estimated at 365.2 million tonnes, the U.S. corn crop would be 20 million tonnes, or 6 percent, larger than 2015. Earlier this month, USDA projected a 7 percent increase in U.S. corn from last year.
The IGC also forecast a record global soybean crop of 321 million tonnes and a record rice crop of 487 million tonnes. ” World carryover stocks will probably expand for the fourth consecutive year inventories of wheat and maize will likely be at historically elevated levels,” said the Grain Market Report.