With a wet and cool spring in the Farm Belt, “it would not be surprising for (corn) acreage to fall short of intentions, particularly in northern growing areas,” says economist Darrel Good of U-Illinois at farmdocdaily, unless corn prices improve. Planting is running behind average so far. Good says late seeding has less impact on planted area than widely assumed. Since 1996, an avg 16 pct of corn was planted after May 20, the period when yield prospects decline. Weather in late summer is the major determinant in corn yield.
Higher market prices can make it worthwhile for farmers to late-plant corn by offsetting any yield loss. At present, Good said, futures prices favor soybeans over corn. “It appears that the market is not yet concerned about the loss of corn acreage this year.” A record crop was harvested last year and another large crop is expected this year. USDA’s Prospective Plantings report pegs corn area at 91.7 mln ac, down 4 pct from 2012 but fifth-largest since 1944.