US corn crop may not be quite so big, but still a record

Two analyses say the record-setting U.S. corn crop is around 14.06 billion bushels, or 2 percent smaller than USDA estimated 11 days ago. That would mean slightly smaller inventories and somewhat higher farm-gate prices, now forecast to be lowest in eight years.

Pro Farmer says corn plantings were smaller than estimated, so even with record yields, the harvest will be smaller than USDA forecast. Pro Farmer says reports by farmers of their crop plantings indicate there is less corn than thought and more soybeans. So, Pro Farmer lowered its corn estimate by 30 million bushels, to 14.063 billion bushels, and raised its soybean estimate by 72 million bushels, to 3.884 billion bushels, compared to USDA’s estimate of 3.913 billion bushels.

Kansas State University also says marginal reductions are likely in USDA’s figures for corn acreage. Its Grain Market Outlook report assigns a 60 percent chance the crop will total 14.061 billiion bushels, which is below USDA’s estimate of 14.395 bilion bushels. As a result, the carry-over at the end of this marketing year would be 200 million bushels smaller and the season-average price would be $3.70 a bushel, up 20 cents from USDA’s estimate. That would be the lowest price in five years.

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