U.S. agricultural exports to the 12 nations involved in the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade talks would rise by 5 percent over a decade if all agricultural tariffs and tariff-rate qoutas were eliminated, says USDA’s Economic Research Service. The TPP bloc includes 800 million people and 40 percent of the world economy. In its study, ERS used a “hypothetical and stylized” scenario that eliminated farm trade barriers among the bloc. It concluded there would be a 6 percent increase, or $8.5 billion, in trade among the nations by 2025 with a U.S. gain of 2.5 percent, the largest increase in exports for any nation.
Japan, which has resisted removal of tariffs on five food sectors, would see the largest increase in imports, said ERS. “Japan will account for almost 70 percent of the expansion in intraregional agricultural imports—the value of Japan’s agricultural imports from its TPP partners in 2025 is expected to be 14 percent ($5.8 billion) higher than under the baseline,” it said.