The United States will work with allies to find new ways to get Ukrainian grain onto the world market following Russia’s decision to effectively blockade its ports again, said an administration spokesman on Monday. Nonetheless, exports from Ukraine, a leading supplier of wheat, corn, and sunflower oil, are sure to decline with the demise of the year-old Black Sea grain agreement, he said.
“Russia’s decision to resume its effective blockade of Ukrainian ports and prevent this grain from getting out will harm people all over the world,” said John Kirby, National Security Council coordinator of strategic communications. Half of the grain exported from Ukraine in the past year went to developing nations.
Supply channels to import-reliant countries in the Middle East and Africa were disrupted and grain prices spiked when Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. Turkey and the United Nations brokered an agreement with Russia and Ukraine that reopened grain shipments through the Black Sea a year ago. UN Secretary-General Antonio Gutteres said Russia’s decision to block an extension of the agreement “will strike a blow to people in need everywhere.”
Warfare and its attendant cost-price squeeze on farmers are cutting into Ukraine’s productive capacity, said Joseph Glauber of the IFPRI think tank. Ukraine will have less grain to export, so global wheat prices will remain volatile, he said.
This year’s wheat crop in Ukraine will be roughly half its size before the invasion, and the corn crop will 60 percent of its pre-invasion size, the USDA estimated a week ago. This would make Ukraine the world’s seventh-largest wheat exporter after years of being in the top five.
Russia is No. 1 in wheat exports, with shipments forecast at 47.5 million tonnes — more than one in every five tonnes sold internationally.
“We’ll do the best we can, we’ll continue to work with allies and partners to find new ways to get the grain out,” said Kirby during a White House briefing. “But there’s no possible way, just mathematically, we’re going to be able to get as much grain out now.”
Russia repeatedly criticized the grain deal as one-sided during its one-year life. A Kremlin spokesman said the agreement was “halted” but Russia would rejoin the pact if its objections were met. Moscow says the deal has not paid off as expected for its grain and fertilizer exports. The agreement was to expire on Monday unless all sides agreed to extend it.
More than 32 million tonnes of grain were shipped from three Ukrainian ports since the grain deal took effect last July, said a UN summary a week ago. “The partial resumption of Ukrainian sea exports enabled by the Initiative has unblocked vital food commodities and has helped reverse spiking global food prices, which reached record highs shortly before the agreement was signed.”