Researchers have identified a promising candidate for an African swine fever vaccine but the United States remains two to five years away from having a large supply, said Agriculture Undersecretary Greg Ibach. Speakers at the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook Forum said China, hit by an ASF epidemic, would struggle to rebuild hog herds in the near term.
China is the world’s largest pork producer and consumer. Its appetite for pork is expected to provide a market for U.S. production that is forecast at a record 28.9 billion pounds this year, up 5 percent from 2019. Exports are forecast at 7.38 billion pounds this year, up 17 percent.
“We are very active in surveillance across the United States,” said Ibach during an Outlook session about African swine fever on Friday. “Early detection will be a key” in case the viral disease is detected, he said, while describing U.S. initiatives to safeguard the American herd.
Ibach said USDA was “two, three, maybe five years away” from having “large quantities of effective ASF vaccine available.” An official from USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service said during a panel discussion that it commonly takes 2-5 years for a vaccine to become available commercially once if leaves the laboratory and is approved by government regulators.
Two hog industry officials said Chinese hog production might return to two-thirds or three-fourths of pre-ASF production in 2021. “It will be some time before China is back up to speed,” said chief executive Michael Lemmon of Whiteshire Hamroc. Brett Stuart, president of Global AgriTrends, estimated “65 percent of the herd is gone,” resulting in massive shortages of pork and a continuing need to import pork to supplement the shortened domestic supply.