The United States, the world’s largest wheat exporter until two years ago, is in an export slump for the second year in a row, according to the Grain: World Markets and Trade report. The U.S. share of the world market is forecast at 16 percent this marketing year, up 2 points from the record low set last year. The European Union will be the world leader for the second consecutive year with 21 percent of the market. The EU, Russia and Ukraine have freight and logistical advantages over the United States in supplying the Middle East and Africa, “the regions that are driving most of the rise in global [wheat] trade,” says the USDA.
The strong dollar, relatively high U.S. wheat prices and large harvests reaped by other exporters will combine to limit U.S. market growth this year, says the USDA. “However, U.S. supplies are ample and can readily fill unexpected import demand surges or global production shortfalls.” A large wheat crop is expected worldwide this year; USDA raised its forecasts for wheat in Europe, Russia and Ukraine this week.