Mexico is the largest rice importer in the Western Hemisphere and the top market for U.S. rice, but American dominance is slipping, says USDA’s monthly Grains: World Markets and Trade report. South American competitors are gaining ground, especially Uruguay, which is forecast to take 15 percent of the market. The U.S. share, which reached 100 percent after NAFTA took effect, is expected to drop to 80 percent, the smallest since 1996.
Like the U.S. crop, Uruguayan rice enters Mexico duty-free. Uruguay’s share of the Mexico market is expected to double from last year’s 8 percent. Guyana, Argentina and Thailand hold small shares of the import market, forecast by USDA at 850,000 tonnes this year. U.S. rice exports to all nations are estimated for 3.45 million tonnes. The United States is a comparatively small rice producer but consistently one of the world’s largest exporters.
However, this year’s U.S. crop is forecast for 178.4 million hundredweight, or 5.66 million tonnes, down 20 percent from 2016 due to sharply smaller plantings. About 55 percent of the U.S. crop is exported each year. The USDA says the smaller crop, higher U.S. rice prices and greater competition on the world market will constrain exports in the year ahead.